## 🪨 Gold Morning Report | June 4, 2026

### 📊 Core Data

| Item | Price | 24h Change |
|------|--------|------------|
| Spot Gold | **$4,460/ounce** | -1.19% |
| Gold T+D | ¥973.88/gram | -0.12% |
| Shanghai Gold Main Contract | ¥976.86/gram | — |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | ~$95/barrel | +1%+ |

24-hour volatility range: $4,423 - $4,497

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### 🔥 Last Night’s Major Events

1. **ADP Employment Surpassed Expectations**: 122k new jobs in May, the largest increase since January last year → Rate hike expectations rise
2. **JOLTS Job Openings at 7.62 Million**: Far exceeding expectations of 6.87 million, showing a resilient labor market
3. **Federal Reserve Beige Book**: Recent weeks’ economic activity and inflation both rising, reinforcing high interest rate stance
4. **Cleveland Fed President Harker**: If inflation continues to rise, a rate hike may be needed soon
5. **Tensions in US-Iran Situation Persist**: Iran suspends negotiations, Israel and Hezbollah clashes intensify, oil prices break $95

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### 💡 Core Judgment

**Short-term biased for downward fluctuation, 4400 is the critical line**

- Resistance above: $4,500 (psychological threshold) → $4,540 → $4,580
- Support below: $4,450 → $4,420 → $4,400 (key strong support)
- The probability of Fed rate hikes in December has risen to 42-50%, which is the core force suppressing gold prices
- High oil prices boost inflation, but conversely strengthen rate hike expectations → bearish for gold

**Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (6/6) is this week’s biggest variable:**
- Expecting 85k new jobs, unemployment rate 4.3%
- Surpassing expectations → further rate hike expectations rise → gold price under pressure testing $4,400
- Below expectations → dollar retreats → gold rebounds, challenging $4,500

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### 🎯 Strategy Reference

- **Short-term**: $4,450-4,500 range oscillation, buy high and sell low, strict stop-loss
- **Mid-term**: $4,400 nearby is a repeatedly tested strong support, holding it maintains the medium-long-term structure
- **Physical Gold**: Jewelry premiums are too high (¥1,355-1,360/gram), not the best buying point; investment gold bars retreating to around ¥990 can be accumulated in batches

**Risk Reminder**: If 4400 is effectively broken downward, support below is at 4350-4300; if geopolitical tensions suddenly ease, gold prices may face increased pressure