Lately I’ve been looking at a bunch of address tags and clustering charts, and the more I look, the more I feel they can only be used as “weather forecasts”: the big picture can be referenced, but don’t take the fine-grained personal profile too seriously. To put it simply, once you start doing internal transfers within exchanges, using agents, consolidating funds, and routing through cross-chain bridges, the tags begin to self-entertain; plus, if some people deliberately mix coins and split positions into different wallets, you end up thinking you’re following “smart money,” when you might just be following a machine.

Airdrop season is even more obvious. Task platforms that are anti-sybil/anti-fraud make the points feel like clocking in to work; addresses get nested layer after layer, and clustering algorithms are also prone to misfires. Anyway, right now when I look at capital flows, I only focus on a few broad lines: whether there’s net inflow or net outflow, whether stablecoins are actually piling up, and whether there’s a trend in migration between the main chain and layer 2s—don’t obsess over “who owns this address.” Stay steady, pace yourself, and do it this way for now.