Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main Trend (1-hour timeframe): Since the high point of 82,448 on May 10, a medium-term downtrend is evolving into a "super bear market." The high of 78,002 on May 26 became the starting point of this round of super decline, followed by a five-wave plunge to 72,450. After an A-B-C correction wave rebound to 74,154, a series of three-wave X-Y-Z crashes brought the price down to 63,997, hitting a nearly 4-month low. On June 3, the entire day’s volume reached 6.69 billion, with panic selling continuing to surge. The medium-term downtrend is very clear, and the decline speed is accelerating sharply, with the market in extreme panic.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): The June 3 movement shows an extreme structure of "rallying high then falling back—cliff-like plunge—low-level oscillation." Early session from 66,679 rallied to 67,411, then at 04:00 a cliff-like crash from 66,781 down to 65,379, continuing to fall to 65,158 at 08:00, then to 64,680 at 10:00. In the afternoon, it oscillated between 64,000–65,000, with the lowest touch at 63,997. Highs and lows are dropping sharply, indicating a free-fall short-term trend.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend is downward and accelerating rapidly; the short-term trend is a free-fall decline. The June 3 crash broke below the June 2 low of 66,109, entering a new crash phase. The key resistance above is 65,000; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term decline may pause. If a rebound stalls at 64,500 and falls back below 63,997, the downtrend continues, targeting the 62,000–63,000 zone.
2. Chan Theory
Structure of Fractals: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top Fractals: Appear at 78,002 (5/26), 76,022 (5/27), 74,462 (5/28), 74,222 (5/29), 74,154 (5/31), 73,900 (6/1), 71,314 (6/2), 67,411 (6/3). The prices at these top fractals move downward step by step: 78,002 → 76,022 → 74,462 → 74,222 → 74,154 → 73,900 → 71,314 → 67,411, with the downward speed increasing sharply, indicating a full-scale bearish force.
Bottom Fractals: Appear at 75,555 (5/26), 74,114 (5/27), 72,450 (5/28), 72,384 (5/29), 73,118 (5/30), 73,288 (5/31), 70,566 (6/1), 66,109 (6/2), 63,997 (6/3). The bottom fractal prices move from 75,555 down to 63,997, with the first seven showing signs of rising, but from June 1-3, a cliff-like break below 63,997 destroys the bottom structure, indicating a market in a supportless decline.
Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the top fractal at 78,002 to the bottom at 75,555, the downward stroke is -2,447. Upward strokes: +467 (75,555 → 76,022), downward: -1,908 (76,022 → 74,114), upward: +348, downward: -2,012, upward: +1,772, downward: -1,838, upward: +1,638, upward: +132. On June 1, from 74,154 to 70,566, downward stroke: -3,588. On June 2, from 70,566 to 66,109, downward stroke: -4,457. On June 3, from 66,109 rebound to 67,411 (+1,302), then a plunge to 63,997 (-3,414). The downward strokes show increasing strength, indicating a full-scale bearish breakout, with the current rebound from 63,997 to 64,298 (+301) yet to form an effective upward stroke.
Central Zones: The support zones at 75,500–76,500, 74,000–75,000, 72,800–74,000, and 66,000–68,000 have been completely broken. The crash on June 3 broke below 64,000, establishing a new down central zone at 63,000–65,000, with 63,997 as the new low.
Chan conclusion: The downward strokes’ increasing strength from -2,447 to -4,457 and -3,414 shows the bearish force is fully erupting, and the market is in a supportless decline. All previous bottom structures are destroyed. Currently, the market is in the early stage of a slight rebound after downward stroke extension, with no sign of ending. Short-term focus is on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 63,997; if yes, the downward stroke may end. If it breaks below 63,000 directly, the decline will extend, with high risk of falling to 61,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the high of 78,002 on May 26 is divided into waves:
Wave 1 (Crash): 78,002 → 75,555 (5/26), -2,447. Panic selling.
Wave 2 (Weak rebound): 75,555 → 76,022 (5/27), +467. About 19.1% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 (Main decline wave): 76,022 → 74,114 (5/27), -1,908. About 0.78 times Wave 1.
Wave 4 (Minor rebound): 74,114 → 74,462 (early morning 5/28), +348. About 18.3% of Wave 3.
Wave 5 (Extended decline): 74,462 → 72,450 (5/28), -2,012. About 0.82 times Wave 1, completing the five-wave decline structure.
Wave A (V-shaped rebound): 72,450 → 74,222 (5/29), +1,772.
Wave B (Deep correction): 74,222 → 72,384 (5/29), -1,838.
Wave C (Rebound to previous high): 72,384 → 74,154 (5/31), +1,770. C wave nearly equal in length to A wave, at 99.9%.
Wave X (New decline begins): 74,154 → 70,566 (6/1), -3,588. X wave’s decline far exceeds any of the five waves.
Wave Y (Extended decline): 70,566 → 66,109 (6/2), -4,457. Y wave’s decline exceeds X wave.
Wave Z (Accelerated decline): 67,411 → 63,997 (6/3), -3,414. The three-wave crash X-Y-Z totals -11,459, confirming the decline has entered the third extension phase of the super bear market, with extreme panic.
Current (weak rebound after Z wave): 63,997 → 64,298 (end of 6/3), +301.
Wave conclusion: After the five-wave decline and A-B-C correction, the X-Y-Z three-wave crash totaled -11,459, confirming the decline has entered the third extension phase of the super bear market. The current rebound after Z wave is very weak (+301). If the rebound cannot quickly recover above 65,000, the rebound after Z wave fails, and a new round of decline will be severe, targeting 62,000–63,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 3, a "volume surge crash" was observed. Total volume reached 6.69 billion, with panic selling continuing. During the early rally, volume shrank; at 04:00, volume surged during the crash; in the afternoon, volume gradually decreased during low oscillations.
Key volume-price nodes:
- 00:00 on June 3: A bearish candle with a long upper shadow (body -307, upper shadow 490), from 66,679 down to 66,372, indicating heavy selling pressure overhead.
- 04:00 on June 3: A massive volume bearish candle (2.61B), from 66,781 down to 65,379, body -832, lower shadow 402, showing panic selling concentrated.
- 08:00 on June 3: A massive volume bearish candle (1.73B), from 65,758 down to 65,158, body -600, confirming continued panic selling.
- 10:00 on June 3: A high-volume bearish candle (0.84B), from 65,480 down to 64,680, body -800, panic selling persists.
- 14:00 on June 3: A high-volume bearish candle (0.20B), from 64,880 down to 64,380, body -500, active selling continues.
- 23:45 on June 3: A volume-reduced bearish candle (near zero volume), from 64,488 down to 63,997, body -491, indicating liquidity exhaustion and a flash crash.
Recent 10x 15-minute candles: From 64,488 oscillating down to 64,298, volume decreasing, market waiting in the 64,000–64,500 zone for direction.
Volume-price conclusion: On June 3, a volume surge crash occurred (6.69B), with panic selling strong. However, during the afternoon crash, volume gradually decreased, and a volume-dry flash crash appeared, indicating selling pressure is waning. The low-volume consolidation at the bottom suggests both bulls and bears are waiting for a direction. If a rebound near 65,000 shows volume stagnation, it confirms bearish dominance; if the price breaks below 63,997 with decreasing volume, the flash crash risk diminishes.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The recent 10 days’ volume control point (POC) is at 73,442, the area of highest trading density for both bulls and bears. Currently, the price at 64,298 is about 9,144 below POC, indicating the market has fallen from the value area into a deeply discounted zone, with the discount rapidly increasing.
Current analysis: Price at 64,298 is well below POC at 73,442, in the below-value zone with a large deviation. In order flow theory, breaking below POC indicates short-term dominance by sellers, with the market falling from a fair valuation zone into an extremely discounted state. The current price is approaching even lower value zones; if it cannot quickly return above POC, the risk of further decline is high.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 77,059–77,191: Resistance HVN (completely broken)
- 75,658–75,790: Mid resistance HVN (broken)
- 74,717–74,849: Core resistance HVN (broken)
- 73,300–73,800: Original POC zone HVN (broken, now resistance)
- 71,000–71,500: Mid resistance HVN (heavy trading on 6/1, broken)
- 68,000–69,000: Mid resistance HVN (heavy trading on 6/2 morning, broken)
- 66,000–67,000: Current resistance HVN (heavy trading on 6/3 morning)
- 64,000–64,500: Current support HVN (heavy trading at end of 6/3)
Delta analysis: During the crash from 04:00 to 10:00 on June 3, Delta turned sharply negative (around -2 billion), confirming active selling dominance. In the afternoon, Delta remained negative but less so, indicating reduced active selling. During the volume-dry flash crash at the end, Delta approached zero, showing both sides are watching. Currently, Delta MA12 has slightly rebounded from deep negative but remains in a negative zone, indicating buying strength is very weak and selling pressure still dominates.
Order flow conclusion: Price below POC 73,442, short-term sellers are fully in control, and the market is in an extremely discounted zone. The key resistance HVNs at 65,000 and 66,000 are critical; if Delta continues positive with volume breakout at these levels, it may recover above 67,000. If Delta remains negative and the price breaks below 63,997, the risk of falling to 62,000 is very high.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Resistance: 82,448 (high point), 78,002 (5/26 high), 74,154 (5/31 high), 72,450 (5/28 low, now resistance)
- Key Resistance: 70,000, 68,000, 66,000 (including 6/3 morning trading zone), 65,000
- Key Support: 64,000, 63,997 (6/3 crash low, recent low), 63,000, 62,000 (psychological level)
Candlestick Patterns:
- June 3 00:00: A long upper shadow bearish candle (body -307, upper shadow 490) near 66,679, showing heavy overhead selling pressure, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.
- June 3 04:00: A large bearish candle with long lower shadow (body -832, lower shadow 402), from 66,781 down to 65,379, indicating panic selling with some buying support below but weak.
- June 3 08:00: A large bearish candle (body -600), from 65,758 down to 65,158, continuing the decline, confirming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
- June 3 10:00: A large bearish candle (body -800), from 65,480 down to 64,680, confirming ongoing panic selling.
- June 3 23:45: A volume-reduced bearish candle (near zero volume), from 64,488 down to 63,997, indicating liquidity exhaustion and a flash crash.
Trend Structure:
- Short-term: Operating in a free-fall downward channel (connecting 74,154 and 63,997 with downward pressure line).
- Medium-term: The decline since May 22 at 77,829 is accelerating sharply, with a new downward trend line connecting 78,002 and 74,154.
Price action conclusion: The short-term is in the lower part of a free-fall channel, between 74,154 and 63,997. 65,000 is a critical dividing line: breaking above may pause the decline, targeting 66,000; resistance at 65,000 suggests testing 63,997 → 63,000 → 62,000 supports.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates a primary trend downward and accelerating, with the short-term trend a free-fall. Key levels are 65,000 (upside) and 63,997 (downside). Chan fractals show increasing downward stroke strength, indicating full-scale bearish breakout, with all previous bottom structures destroyed. Elliott Wave confirms a five-wave decline + A-B-C correction, followed by a series of three-wave crashes X-Y-Z totaling -11,459, entering the third extension of the super bear market. Volume-price signals show a volume surge crash (6.69B) with panic selling, but decreasing volume in the afternoon, indicating waning selling pressure. Order flow shows POC at 73,442, with the price below, entering a deeply discounted zone, and Delta MA12 still in negative territory, confirming strong selling dominance. Price action shows "shooting star," "bearish engulfing," and "flash crash" patterns, with a highly bearish short-term outlook.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If the price near 63,997–64,000 shows sustained decreasing volume, a bottom fractal, and Delta turns positive, consider small long positions targeting 65,000 → 66,000 with a stop at 63,500.
- Bearish scenario: If a rebound to 65,000–66,000 forms a top fractal with increasing volume and downward movement, confirming Z wave failure and new decline, consider short positions targeting 63,000 → 62,000 with a stop at 66,500.
Current state: At 64,298, in a low-volume oscillation zone after the crash, the short-term bias is extremely bearish. It is not recommended to buy on the left side. Wait for a rebound near 65,000 to confirm resistance before shorting, or look for clear bottom structures (double bottom, head and shoulders bottom) before considering longs.