The biggest feeling I've had from watching the market these days is: when interest rates stay unchanged, everyone dares to tell stories; once someone mentions "possibly staying high longer," risk appetite seems to tighten by half a turn, and positions also lighten up. To put it simply, macro transmission to the crypto world isn't that mysterious — it's just that the cost of money has increased, so people prioritize survival before dreaming.

I personally focus on the flow of stablecoins in and out of exchanges; when net inflows increase, market sentiment tends to become more volatile; but as soon as there’s a bit of tension on U.S. debt, the heat quickly subsides, and on-chain activity has to give way to reality. Recently, Layer 2 projects have been arguing loudly over TPS, fees, and subsidies; I see it more as “pulling in customers,” since once subsidies stop, only those who stay matter.

What I regret isn’t the outcome, but that I knew macro conditions weren’t easing yet still forced myself to add drama, itching to chase that segment. For now, that’s it — continuing to stay low-profile.