Over the past couple of days, people have been using stablecoin supply as a “weather forecast”: when it goes up, they claim off-chain money has come in, and that ETFs are about to take off. Put simply, the correlation is pretty similar—just don’t rush to treat it as causation… Sometimes it’s only large players moving their positions from elsewhere, or market makers topping up inventory. It’s not as dramatic as you think.

And recently, cross-chain bridges have been hacked again, oracles have even produced abnormal quotes. Everyone keeps saying “wait for confirmation” consensus, and I get it: survive first, then talk about returns. Anyway, I look at the candlestick chart as a barometer of market conditions—having an umbrella doesn’t necessarily mean it will rain. More often, it’s about being prepared.