Recently, many people have been comparing stablecoin supply curves to ETF net inflows, and then jumping to conclusions: money is coming in / money is leaving. To put it simply, correlation does not equal causation... Sometimes, the increase in stablecoins is just for market making, cross-exchange arbitrage, or on-chain lending temporarily needing liquidity, and not necessarily "new money" genuinely entering from outside the market. The same applies to ETFs; the subscription and redemption mechanisms have delays and hedging, so what’s seen on-chain might already be secondhand sentiment.

I personally prefer to break it down: where exactly is this wave of supply increase going— which addresses/exchanges? Is it net deposit or net withdrawal on-chain? When combined with spot market depth and funding rates, it’s less likely to be misled by a single chart.

Additionally, recently, the "yield stacking" of staking and shared security, which has been criticized as a copycat, is quite normal. The APR generated from subsidies looks attractive, but the source of cash flow is unclear, and ultimately, it’s about who bears whose risk... Anyway, I’m not too confident in taking "looks very related" as "definitely will happen." That’s all for now.