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QCP: Bitcoin needs to hold at $67k, and the market has not yet shown extreme panic
The crypto market's deleveraging combined with unfavorable macro conditions has put pressure on high-beta assets like Bitcoin. The options market shows strong defensive sentiment, with the 30-day at-the-money implied volatility rising to 41.4, short-term structures inverted, and the risk reversal indicator significantly negative, indicating the market prefers buying downside protection rather than chasing gains. Currently, Bitcoin needs to stay within the $67,000-$68,000 range; otherwise, the rebound remains fragile. The overall market is not panicking and exiting, but hedging against downside risks, waiting for a soft macro landing or easing geopolitical tensions.