Ultimate Prediction—Who Will Be the First to Complete an IPO?

Based on all analytical dimensions—technological moat, profit pathways, valuation reasonableness, governance structure, market window, and regulatory environment—we rank the IPO race before 2027.

First Place: SpaceX

Certainty: ★★★★★ (S-1 filed, expected to go public on June 12). Key drivers: Starlink with over 10 million users; AI synergy imagined after merging with xAI; Nasdaq index rule changes; high retail investor allocation. Key risk: Will a $1.75 trillion valuation be recognized by institutions? Probability: 99%.

Second Place: Anthropic

Certainty: ★★★★☆ (Secretly submitted IPO documents, expected October 2026). Key drivers: Claude Code’s rapid growth; expected first profit in Q2; Series H funding valued at $17.5k; hired Wilson Sonsini law firm (Google’s IPO underwriter in 2004). Key risk: The accounting difference between “gross revenue and net revenue” in total revenue needs clarification in the S-1. Probability: 69%.

Third Place: Discord

Certainty: ★★★☆☆ (Submitted application secretly, but probability has fallen from 91% to 57.5%). Key drivers: 200 million monthly active users; experience rejecting Microsoft’s $10 billion acquisition; deep stickiness in community social scenarios. Key challenge: Can Nitro paid conversion rates continue to improve? Clarity of profit pathways. Probability: 57.5%.

Fourth Place: OpenAI

Certainty: ★★★☆☆ (Planning to go public in 2027, target valuation of $1 trillion, probability 72%). Key drivers: ChatGPT’s brand influence; ongoing AI technological leadership; ambition for a trillion-dollar IPO. Key challenges: Ongoing massive losses; complexity of transitioning from a non-profit governance structure; may lose to Anthropic in the IPO race. Probability: 72%.

Fifth Place: Stripe & Databricks (Tie)

Certainty: ★★☆☆☆. Both companies have solid fundamentals, but the “wolf is coming” narrative keeps recurring. Key drivers: Massive scale of payment infrastructure; rapid growth of AI data software. Key challenges: Co-founders publicly state they are not in a rush to go public; can opt for internal buyouts instead of IPOs. Probability: Stripe 55%, Databricks 70%.

Summary: The “Big Winner” Track for IPOs Before 2027

The most likely companies to complete IPOs before 2027 follow two main themes: aerospace technology (SpaceX) and AI large models (Anthropic, OpenAI), supplemented by consumer social (Discord) and enterprise software (Stripe, Databricks). China’s hard tech sector should not be overlooked either. This IPO wave is not only a focus on Wall Street but also marks the full transition of AI and aerospace bubbles from private equity to public markets.

Polymarket Investment Strategy Recommendation

In probability distribution, prioritize SpaceX as the main position, with Anthropic as a secondary. For lower-risk traders, use straddle strategies to invest in multiple options simultaneously to diversify risk. For high-risk appetite, focus on the most likely candidates based on the “first to go public” logic. Regardless of the strategy, closely monitor SEC disclosures, macro interest rate trends, and key clues from executives’ public statements.

All clues for IPOs before 2027 are now clear—it's your turn to make a judgment on Polymarket!

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