Polymarket Odds: A Comprehensive Breakdown — 21 Polls Reveal the Market’s Most Realistic Expectations

As of early June 2026, based on aggregated data from multiple prediction markets, we can produce a comprehensive probability map for an “IPO before 2027.”

Predicted probabilities for each company (as of early June 2026)

· SpaceX: 99% — Has officially submitted S-1 documents, expected to go public on June 12, 2026; the most certain among all candidate companies
· Discord: 91% → Dropped to 57.5% — Has secretly submitted an IPO application; the probability has fallen compared with the beginning of the year
· Anthropic: 69% — Has secretly submitted IPO documents; expected to go public within 2026
· OpenAI: 72% — Plans to go public in 2027, but it may be delayed
· Stripe: 55% — Has repeatedly postponed its IPO; still plans to go public between 2026 and 2027
· Databricks: 70% — Seen as a popular IPO candidate in the AI data software sector
· Cerebras Systems: 95% (Kalshi) — Completed its IPO in May 2026

The Most Important Findings

Of course, the odds themselves matter, but what’s even more worth paying attention to is the marginal change in where the money flows. Recently, the transaction volume for SpaceX and Anthropic has continued to rise, while OpenAI’s transaction volume has increased relatively slowly. This suggests that some traders have shifted their focus away from OpenAI and toward Anthropic, which completed its secret filing first. Discord’s odds fell sharply from 91% to 57.5%, reflecting a weakening market belief in its ability to achieve a $15 billion valuation before 2027.

Reverse (Contrarian) Investment Signals

Currently, the odds indicate that market sentiment is heavily tilted toward SpaceX and Anthropic leading. But this also means that if OpenAI suddenly announces an accelerated IPO plan, its odds could swing dramatically—creating opportunities for traders willing to take a contrarian position. Similarly, if the market performance after SpaceX’s IPO exceeds expectations, consumer social platforms such as Discord—already relatively undervalued by the market—may see a revaluation of their worth.

My take: Based on multiple prediction market datasets, the top three companies most likely to complete an IPO before 2027 are ranked as: SpaceX → Anthropic → OpenAI. Investors should focus on the signals about where the money is going behind changes in the odds, rather than simply following mass sentiment.

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