Liquidity risk after IPO—Will unlocking restrictions trigger a stock price plunge?

For companies planning to go public before 2027, the IPO itself is only the first test. The real “stress test” often comes when the lock-up period expires—when employees and early investors are allowed to sell their shares.

SpaceX’s lock-up arrangement: concerns over early unlocking

SpaceX plans to unlock insiders’ shares early. According to analysis reports, at least 90% of the locked shares will be unlocked by then. This means that stocks cashed out by employees and early investors could just happen to be taken up by index-tracking funds.

For SpaceX, the concern over a large volume of shares being unlocked shortly after going public is especially prominent. An portfolio manager bluntly said, “I can’t think of any IPO in my lifetime that’s more impactful than this.” The size of SpaceX makes the risk exposure from lock-up expiration unprecedentedly large.

Lessons from history: Facebook’s crash after going public

In 2012, Facebook’s market value evaporated by more than half within the first three months after its IPO, partly due to selling pressure from lock-up expirations combined with market concerns over the company’s business model transformation. Only after the company demonstrated resilience and investors grew more confident in its business model did the stock price begin a sustained upward trend. This case shows that even with strong fundamentals, the timing, scale, and pace of lock-up releases need to be carefully designed.

Strategies for subsequent IPO companies

For potential IPO candidates like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Discord before 2027, how to design lock-up periods will become an important part of IPO structuring. A reasonable lock-up schedule—one that neither makes investors wait too long to reduce IPO appeal nor causes too much concentration of unlockings leading to sharp stock price swings—is an art that requires precise control.

Hedge funds and institutional investors pay particular attention to this indicator. The shorter the lock-up period and the higher the unlock ratio, the greater the risk of stock price volatility after IPO, and the lower the willingness of institutions to participate in IPO offerings.

My judgment: Lock-up period design will be an undervalued variable in the IPO wave before 2027. SpaceX’s lock-up arrangement is under close market scrutiny, and its outcome will set a reference for future IPOs. When investors on Polymarket predict whether a company can go public before 2027, they might also consider “whether the stock price can remain stable after IPO”—because companies with poor lock-up management, even if they successfully go public, may not maintain market trust. #Polymarket每日热点