Valuation Disputes — What Signals Are Hidden in the Pricing Clash Between Morgan Stanley and Morningstar?

While SpaceX’s IPO valuation may appear to be market consensus, there are major disagreements among professional investment institutions. This disagreement itself is an important signal—it is not only about the pricing of SpaceX, but also about whether the entire AI and aerospace sector is being excessively overvalued.

Morningstar’s $78 billion — Less than Half of the Target Valuation

Morningstar recently valued SpaceX at $78 billion, which is less than half of its IPO target valuation. This valuation is based on a traditional DCF model, drawing comparisons between SpaceX and traditional aerospace companies such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing. From this perspective, SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion target valuation is seriously out of line with financial fundamentals.

Morgan Stanley’s $1.75 trillion — The Rationale for a “Narrative Premium”

However, the target valuation of as much as $1.75 trillion supported by investment banks such as the underwriter Morgan Stanley is based on the “semi-monopolistic” position SpaceX holds in defense strategy premium, the consumer-level cash flow validation of Starlink, and the synergy envisioned after a merger with xAI. The gap between these two valuations—nearly $1 trillion—essentially reflects the size of the “narrative premium.”

Elon Musk’s “denial” controversy

This valuation dispute is also reflected in media coverage ahead of the listing. Some media outlets reported that SpaceX would lower its IPO target valuation from over $2 trillion to at least $1.8 trillion, but Musk quickly denied the claim. Musk’s involvement makes the valuation game even more complex—if he is unwilling to concede on valuation, underwriters will face greater pricing pressure.

Retail vs. Institutions: Who Will Pay for the High Price?

SpaceX plans to reserve 30% of the issuance shares for retail investors. The double-edged effect of this arrangement is starting to show: on the one hand, retail enthusiasm could support the offering price; on the other hand, Interactive Brokers strategist points out that in traditional IPOs, retail entry is a force that drives the stock price higher after the listing. However, if retail investors receive too much allocation during the issuance phase, the buying momentum after listing may be depleted prematurely.

My take: The valuation disagreement may not prevent SpaceX from completing its listing before 2027, but it will affect the price performance after the listing. If issued at $1.75 trillion, and performance after listing is poor, it could trigger a chain reaction for high-valuation tech IPOs such as Anthropic and OpenAI. Polymarket investors should list the valuation battle as the second most important variable after “whether to go public.”

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