Macroeconomic Environment—Interest Rates, Liquidity, and the Opening and Closing of the IPO Window Before 2027

The macro environment of the capital markets is a key external factor determining whether these tech giants can go public as planned. Currently, the U.S. stock market is in a delicate window—IPO activity is picking up, but a surge of mega-IPOs could, in turn, impact market liquidity.

How astonishing is the scale of mega-IPOs?

In 2025, the total fundraising from U.S. stock IPOs is approximately $45 billion, with a cumulative scale of about $100 billion over the past four years. Meanwhile, the potential IPO fundraising scale of just three mega-unicorns—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—reaches around $200 billion. If these mega-IPOs are concentrated and go live, the total IPO fundraising in the U.S. in 2026 could surpass the record high of approximately $160 billion in 2021.

Can the market “absorb” the three giants?

Historical experience shows that massive IPOs often occur during periods of high market sentiment, abundant liquidity, and rapidly expanding valuations. However, several analysts point out that a concentration of fundraising at the level of $200 billion could pose liquidity risks within the U.S. stock market.

We can look back at similar “IPO waves” in history and their subsequent market performance: shortly after a wave of railroads and industrial giants went public in 1929, the Great Depression ensued; after the internet IPO boom of 1999-2000, the dot-com bubble burst; following Rivian’s IPO exceeding $10 billion in 2021, the U.S. stock market experienced a significant correction in 2022.

How long is the window?

U.S. bank analysts indicate that the current market exhibits “bubble characteristics”—a combination of strong price momentum, retail investor enthusiasm, and low volatility— with the technology sector’s weight in the S&P 500 exceeding 44%. Zhu Bin, Chief Economist at Nanhua Futures, states that from valuation and market structure perspectives, the current AI rally in U.S. stocks bears high similarity to the late-stage internet bubble.

The key divergence is: does the mega-IPO wave mean the market has peaked? Zhu Bin further points out that the development of the AI industry and the capital market bubble triggered by AI are not the same concept. Even if there is a phased correction in AI-related assets in the future, it does not mean the logic of the artificial intelligence industry has been discredited; it is more likely that the capital market has already front-loaded some long-term expectations.

My view: 2026 to 2027 will be the golden period for the IPO window to open. However, investors should be cautious of the siphoning effect of mega-IPOs on liquidity—after SpaceX absorbs a large amount of capital, subsequent listings of other companies may face more limited financial support. Completing listings before the window closes is crucial for each company.

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