Profitability Checkpoint — Why OpenAI’s Massive Losses Could Become the Biggest Obstacle to Its IPO

When we discuss whether a company can complete an IPO before 2027, the most hardcore metric is not user numbers, not download volumes, but—whether it can make money. On this measure, the gap among several star candidates is striking.

Anthropic: The AI company with the clearest path to profitability

Among all AI unicorns, Anthropic’s financial performance stands out the most. Its annualized revenue surged from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $47 billion by the end of May 2026, and it is expected to achieve positive cash flow between 2027 and 2028. More importantly, the company expects to achieve its first profit in Q2.

This clear path to profitability is the key reason Anthropic was able to secure a massive $65 billion in funding in Series H, and it also provides the confidence to be the first to file an IPO application with the SEC.

OpenAI: The dilemma of losses under a trillion-dollar valuation

By contrast, OpenAI’s financial situation is much more complex. In all of 2025, OpenAI’s operating loss reached $6.355 billion. Its target valuation is as high as $1 trillion—under conditions of massive losses, this valuation is based more on technological leadership and market imagination than on steady, robust cash flow.

What is even more worrying is intensifying competition. Anthropic’s Claude poses a direct challenge to ChatGPT in multiple areas such as code generation and enterprise services; Google’s Gemini, Meta’s Llama, and others are also rapidly catching up. If OpenAI cannot significantly improve its profitability before going public, its trillion-dollar valuation will face serious scrutiny.

SpaceX: Profitability is just around the corner, providing a “ballast” for a trillion-dollar valuation

SpaceX’s profitability outlook is also improving. It is forecast that the company’s annualized revenue is about $44 billion, and it is expected to achieve its first operating profit in Q2. SpaceX’s Starlink business has an EBITDA profit margin exceeding 50%, providing unprecedented profitability stability. For investors, the combination of “trillion-dollar-level revenue + solid profits” is the strongest endorsement supporting a trillion-dollar valuation.

My take: Profitability is the most core screening metric for an IPO before 2027. SpaceX and Anthropic, with clear paths to profit, have the highest level of certainty in going public; Discord and Stripe both need to prove that profitability is sustainable; while OpenAI must produce a convincing timetable for turning losses into profit—otherwise, its 2027 IPO plan may be delayed again, and there is no guarantee it won’t be overtaken by other AI companies.

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