Stripe and Databricks — The "IPO Wolf Is Coming" in the Tech World, Will It Come True by 2027?

If SpaceX, Anthropic, and Discord are "about to go public," then Stripe and Databricks are "still talking about going public" — and have been for several years. The IPO expectations for these two companies are frequently mentioned but repeatedly delayed, becoming the biggest "IPO wolf is coming" story in the tech industry.

Stripe: Valuation Rollercoaster and Founders' Attitudes

Stripe's valuation reached as high as $95 billion in 2021, then was sharply reduced in 2023, with the latest buyout offer valuing it at around $140 billion. Co-founder John Collison has publicly stated multiple times that "there are no IPO plans in the short term." The company provides liquidity to employees and early investors through regular buyouts rather than rushing to go public. Stripe expects to announce an IPO sometime between late 2026 and early 2027, but the market remains cautious.

Stripe's predicament is quite representative: as a leader in online payment infrastructure, its business model is stable and predictable, but because of that, its valuation after going public must be scrutinized under strict financial metrics, which will diminish the "pure growth story." The founders' emphasis on control is also a key reason for delaying the IPO.

Databricks: A Hot IPO in the AI Data Software Field

Databricks is widely regarded as a hot IPO candidate in the AI data software sector, with an estimated 70% chance of going public. The company's valuation in the private market has exceeded $43 billion and continues to grow amid the AI boom. Its core product — a unified data lakehouse platform — has broad application scenarios in large model training and enterprise data infrastructure.

However, Databricks is also a typical case of "constant IPO rumors with no actual action." It seems to be optimizing timing to achieve maximum valuation efficiency rather than rushing to go public. Unlike the previous IPO boom, investors in 2026 are more focused on profitability. For a data software company still burning cash rapidly to expand, an early IPO could face valuation discounts.

My judgment: Based on multiple forecast data, the probability of Stripe and Databricks completing an IPO before 2027 is approximately 55% and 70%, respectively, with significantly higher uncertainty than SpaceX and Anthropic. But it’s worth noting that once any of these companies initiates the IPO process, it could become a key catalyst for the entire tech IPO cycle. Their decision to go public — rather than whether they can go public — is currently the biggest variable.

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