These back-to-back downward breakouts over the past few days have harshly educated the dip-buying crowd; many people entered in batches to buy the dip, but ended up trapped deeper and deeper—this has been one of the most torturous market phases for the bulls recently.

The continued weakness in mainstream coins in this round is not caused by a single factor. At the macro level, I think there are several key triggers: first, the US–Iran geopolitical situation keeps fluctuating repeatedly, and market risk-aversion sentiment continues to churn and disturb the price action; second, the US stock market has recently been experiencing serious “capital draining,” with a large amount of funds that were originally allocated to BTC and ETH being redirected toward US stocks, and trading volume has visibly and steadily shrunk. In addition, as the World Cup approaches, many brothers who are getting ready to watch games have pulled out crypto principal to place bets on the matches—so with so much multi-party capital continuing to flow out, multiple bad news factors stacked together directly dragged the market into a deep bear trend.

Today’s chart has brought a short-term oversold rebound/relief rally. From the low at 65,400, Big Pie has been rebounding all the way up, pushing toward around 67,500; the short-term bounce has been more than 2,000 points. It also just provides us with an opportunity to set up short positions.

From the perspective of chart structure, in the past few days the market has fallen in a smooth, one-way move, with basically no effective consolidation and range-trading in between. The price action is in a “price vacuum” zone; in the short term, support and resistance lack repeated back-and-forth fine-tuning from both bulls and bears. Various common technical indicators have limited reference value, so the trading mindset should prioritize aligning with the overall trend and sticking mainly to “set shorts on rebounds.”

**Specific entry levels**

Big Pie: 68,100-68,500 short, defense 69,500, targets 66,500—reduce position and watch again 65,500-63,000$BTC

Ethereum: 1,915-1,938 short, defense 1,968, target 1,870—reduce position and watch again 1,840-1,750$ETH