Macroeconomic Factors and Bitcoin Correlation — The Real Reasons Behind the June 3rd Drop

On June 3rd, Bitcoin fell by 6.03%. On the surface, it was a technical correction, but the deeper reasons are closely related to macroeconomic conditions. Understanding these macro factors is essential to assess whether 66,000 can serve as a medium-term bottom.

First, U.S. Treasury yields are rising. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI data released on June 2nd exceeded expectations, reaching 49.5 (previously 48.2). Although still below the expansion-contraction line, the improvement was beyond expectations. This led to further delay in market expectations for Fed rate cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.3% to 4.45%, putting pressure on interest rate-sensitive assets, including Bitcoin. Currently, the market has priced in a 55% chance of a rate cut in September, down from 70% a week ago. If subsequent economic data remains strong, Bitcoin could face further pressure.

Second, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) strengthened. The dollar index rebounded from 104.5 to 105.2, hitting a two-week high. Bitcoin and the dollar index are usually negatively correlated. A stronger dollar means funds are flowing from risk assets into USD cash. Monitoring whether the dollar index can hold above 105: if it breaks through 105.5, Bitcoin may test below 65,000.

Third, U.S. tech stocks are pulling back. The Nasdaq declined by 1.8% on June 3rd, with major stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft falling significantly. As a “digital tech asset,” Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq reached 0.7 over the past month. The pullback in U.S. stocks can influence the crypto market through sentiment transmission. However, it’s important to note that the Nasdaq is still in a technical bull market; as long as it doesn’t fall below 16,000 points (Nasdaq futures), the impact on Bitcoin should be limited.

Fourth, miner selling pressure. After Bitcoin dropped below 68,000, some miners’ breakeven points were reached. It is estimated that miners using older models like the S19 Pro have a cost basis around 65,000–68,000. When prices fall below this level, miners may be forced to sell Bitcoin to cover electricity costs. On-chain data shows that on June 3rd, the amount of BTC transferred from miners to exchanges increased by about 15%. If prices continue to decline, miner selling pressure will intensify. The good news is that after the halving, miners’ revenue structure has changed, with a higher proportion coming from transaction fees, reducing their sensitivity to price fluctuations.

Overall, whether 66,000 can serve as a bottom depends on three key upcoming events in the next week: first, the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on June 7th; second, the CPI data on June 12th; third, the Federal Reserve rate decision on June 13th. If these data are dovish (slowing employment, declining inflation), Bitcoin is likely to rebound; if hawkish, it may break below 66,000. Therefore, current bottom-fishing should focus on short-term swings, avoiding heavy overnight positions, and waiting for macro uncertainties to subside before increasing holdings. For long-term investors (holding periods over 6 months), 66,000 has already entered a reasonable accumulation zone.

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