Bitcoin panic sell-off, but open interest in coin-margined contracts is approaching a record high.

The position of 784.4k BTC forms a rare divergence with the price trend.
Historical experience shows that such extreme situations often indicate a key top or bottom.
But this time is different: AI capital siphoning, record ETF outflows, and consecutive long liquidations are happening, with open interest growth mainly from hedging and basis trading, not directional bets.
Behind the resilience of open interest is a profound change in market structure: institutions lock in spot exposure through coin-margined contracts while hedging with perpetual contracts, creating both long and short positions.
This strategy seems stable during low volatility, but once the direction breaks out, sharp basis fluctuations could trigger chain reactions.
The risk is: the higher the open interest, the greater the liquidity impact when closing positions.
If Bitcoin continues to decline, concentrated liquidations of hedging positions could accelerate the drop.
Conversely, if it rebounds, short covering will also amplify the rally.
Currently, the market is at a critical point of long-short competition.
Open interest itself does not predict the direction, but it amplifies the volatility after any breakout.
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