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Tonight after 8 o'clock, the non-farm payrolls preview indicators are coming, and more frightening is that it may serve as a prelude to the main force signaling a deadlock will be broken.
We don't know when gold will return to 4100, or when we will see over 800 gold again domestically, but this possibility still exists, only requiring decisive negative news and large-volume bearish candles to confirm.
Before that, we remain cautious; last Saturday, we reminded everyone that the current market is constrained within a range, in the stage of main force oscillation and accumulation.
These past two days, we continue to emphasize that gold prices are still within the 4450 to 4590 range, with a clear pattern of resistance and support, waiting for non-farm results or any truly decisive new movement.
The market is currently perfectly aligned with our previous expectations.
Today is June 3rd, and the international gold price is 4466.
Today, I will use my 25 years of experience to analyze the key levels and response strategies within this range-bound market, and tonight, the ADP data will be released.
This data is an important preview indicator for Friday’s non-farm payrolls and can trigger short-term market volatility.
However, combined with the current market situation, the data is unlikely to push the market out of a clear direction, mainly because the US dollar index also closed with a choppy consolidation candle yesterday, indicating a state of indecision.
The market’s true directional choice is likely to wait until Friday’s non-farm data is released for clarity.
The overall bullish pattern of the US dollar index has not changed; although it has recently entered consolidation, it still has the momentum to break through resistance levels upward.
Based on market expectations, if today’s data supports a stronger dollar, the dollar is likely to start an upward breakout on Thursday or Friday, and gold will also face downward pressure simultaneously.
Adding to the current deadlock in negotiations, with ongoing friction, short-term resistance for gold is very high.
Subsequently, focus on whether the market can form a solid bearish candle and effectively break below the key support at 4450.
Once broken, the downside space for gold will be fully opened.
Yesterday, gold’s daily chart closed with an uncertain candle, with the price rebounding from a key support level, but the upward momentum was limited, reaching a high of 4541, and ultimately closing with a long upper shadow candle.
This pattern indicates that the market is still in a phase of oscillation, adjustment, and accumulation.
Previously, we clearly pointed out that the 4450 to 4460 range for gold has strong support, with core resistance concentrated around 4590 to 4600.
In the short term, the market continues to oscillate within this range, and the daily trendline resistance remains very effective.
Yesterday, after the price surged to the trendline and resistance zone, it was met with resistance and pulled back.
The uncertainty about the breakout direction persists.
From a short-term pattern analysis, gold was briefly strong yesterday, but then four-hour candles closed lower consecutively, indicating a weakening trend, with moving averages gradually turning downward, favoring a bearish outlook.
We should be patient and wait for clear breakout signals on the market; once a solid large bearish candle appears, we can then look for short-selling opportunities.
Tonight, market data will be relatively dense, with multiple US economic indicators like ADP increasing short-term volatility.
During this phase of market ambiguity, it’s unnecessary to be stubborn; it’s better to prioritize trading in assets with clear trends.
More key levels and operational ideas can be found in the small classroom.