#BTC触底66000 Recently, Bitcoin has been continuously declining, which is the result of a confluence of four factors: tightening macro policies, institutional fund withdrawals, geopolitical risks, and the shaking of core narratives.

1. Macro “Valuation Kill”: The Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish

This is the most significant bearish factor. U.S. inflation exceeded expectations (April job openings far above forecasts), causing market logic to shift from “when to cut rates” to “whether to raise rates.”

· Rate hike expectations: Federal Reserve officials even stated “if inflation persists, rate hikes may need to be restarted soon.”
· Tightening funds: Expectations of high interest rates suppressed risk asset valuations, directly leading to capital outflows from the crypto market.

2. Capital “Stampede”: ETFs and Giants Are Selling

Demand dries up, supply increases, forming a selling spiral.

· Record ETF outflows: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced 11 consecutive days of net outflows, redeeming approximately $3.5 billion, setting a new record.
· Faith benchmark collapse: The world’s largest corporate coin holder, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), broke the “buy and hold only” myth by selling Bitcoin for the first time since 2022.
· Large holders reducing holdings: About 6,000 BTC (roughly $440 million) flowed from whale addresses into the market within a week.

3. Geopolitical “Black Swan”: Hedging Properties Fail

Tensions in the Middle East (Iran threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz) caused oil prices to surge. According to the “digital gold” logic, prices should rise at this time, but Bitcoin instead plummeted.

· Logic falsification: This proves that in the face of a real liquidity crisis, Bitcoin is still viewed as a high-risk asset rather than a safe haven.
· Liquidation data: Market volatility caused over 250k traders to be liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling $250k.

4. Narrative “Crisis of Faith”: Three Major Logic Failures Simultaneously

The market is re-evaluating Bitcoin’s value, and its core investment logic has been severely challenged during this decline:

· Anti-inflation failure: U.S. inflation hit a new high in 2023, yet Bitcoin plunged, with holders’ real purchasing power shrinking by about 39%.
· Safe haven failure: Gold surged due to geopolitical conflicts, while Bitcoin fell; investor Mark Cuban openly stated he has sold most of his holdings.
· Scarcity failure: The fixed total supply only matters when demand grows; when capital flows out, scarcity cannot support the price.

What to watch next?
According to Gate’s market data forecast, there is a 93% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $65,000 in June, and even a 44% chance it will drop below $60,000. Short-term trends to focus on:

1. Capital flow turning point: When will ETF switch from net outflow to net inflow?
2. Policy signals: The Fed’s FOMC meeting in mid-June regarding interest rate statements.
3. Geopolitical situation: Whether Middle East negotiations will ease.

In the current market environment, it is recommended to closely monitor macro policies and capital flows, and manage risk positions carefully.