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1. 1972-1973 (Nixon Prosperity → Oil Crisis)
Nixon massively loosened monetary policy to seek re-election, causing stocks and inflation to rise simultaneously. In 1972, the Dow hit a new high, and the CPI also accelerated. In 1973, after the oil embargo, the Fed was forced to aggressively raise interest rates, the stock market halved, and a decade of stagflation began.
Key features: Politically driven excess liquidity + supply-side shocks = inflation and asset prices rising together, then collapsing together.
2. 1999-2000 (End of the Tech Bubble)
While the NASDAQ soared wildly, core PCE rose from 1.4% to 2.2%. The Fed started raising interest rates in June 1999 but the market completely ignored it, continuing to rise for another nine months. Rising inflation expectations + asset bubble coexisted for nearly a year until a sudden crash in March 2000.
Key features: The market believed the "new paradigm" could ignore inflation until it couldn't.
3. 2021-2022 (Post-Pandemic Bubble)
Throughout 2021, the CPI skyrocketed from 1.4% to 7%, while Bitcoin surged to 69k, the Nasdaq hit new highs, and meme stocks went crazy. Everyone knew inflation was rising but believed "the Fed wouldn't dare raise rates." In 2022, the Fed actually did, and everything collapsed.
Key features: Liquidity inertia + inflation denial = the final frenzy.