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Has the strategy of selling coins become the fuse? Is the last drop over?
Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins for the first time in four years.
The amount isn't large, with an average price of $77,135, netting $2.5 million, which accounts for only 0.0038% of its total holdings of 840,000 coins.
But this small trade broke a barrier, it sold coins to pay cash dividends to the preferred stock STRC.
STRC is a perpetual preferred stock that Strategy pushed last year, with an annual dividend yield of 11.5%, paid in USD every month. The company had a beautiful plan: use Bitcoin to support the stock, then raise funds through the stock to buy more Bitcoin, creating a cycle. Theoretically, a 2.3% annual Bitcoin appreciation could cover the dividend costs. But the problem is, dividends require real cash, not just paper appreciation.
After this sale, Bitcoin dropped from $72k to around $66k, liquidating nearly $400 million of long leverage in one hour, and over $1 billion throughout the day.
Many say that 32 Bitcoins couldn't have caused this drop; the real alarm is the signal— even Strategy, a die-hard long that only buys and never sells, has started to use its reserves.
Of course, the deeper risk isn't in this sale but in its entire model. Recently, STRC's stock price has been below its $100 par value, dropping as low as $97. If future preferred stock issuances go poorly or the stock continues to trade at a discount, Strategy will have to sell Bitcoin to cover interest payments.
Worse still, if Bitcoin prices don't rise significantly, the same dividend amount will eat up a larger portion of its asset base. By then, the selling pressure won't be just $2.5 million but hundreds of millions or even billions.
Some analysts say liquidity has never been an issue; Bitcoin trades hundreds of billions daily. The real concern is whether, during a prolonged market downturn and with limited other financing options, Strategy can pay fixed USD interest without being forced to sell Bitcoin.
After all, it currently spends about $1.6 billion annually on STRC dividends alone, and the overall asset appreciation at market value isn't stable.
Of course, this flash crash isn't entirely Strategy's fault. The technicals had already weakened—Bitcoin broke below the short-term holding cost line (around $77k).
On a macro level, AI's explosive growth has drained liquidity, energy prices and employment data have repeatedly lowered expectations for rate cuts.
But Strategy's sale of BTC became the most conspicuous trigger, shifting market focus from macro issues back to a more tangible problem.
So now, the question is: has the long-anticipated "final dip" been completed?
From the market panic level, this plunge seems to have fewer curses; even some strong altcoins didn't follow the decline. We can interpret this as a sign that since the rebound in May, the market has started to differentiate, with funds selectively finding exits. So, widespread panic is now rare—altcoins have long been "pennies on the dollar."
As for when the bottom and rebound will come, it still depends on ETF inflows, how the Middle East situation resolves, and the macroeconomic data influencing decision-making. The rest is up to the market or the smart capital flows.
Finally, a soul-searching question for those still in this market: Can the crypto market rise again? Where is the opportunity?