‍#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

The Fear & Greed Index has pulled back, and Microsoft has dropped over 4%. Is it a good time to buy the dip?

Last night, leading tech stock Microsoft in the U.S. stock market fell more than 4%, closing at $441.31, with the highest reaching $453.50, and the lowest dropping to $440.43. The daily trading volume was 37.04 million shares, with a turnover of $16.44B. Its total market capitalization remained steady at $3.28 trillion, and the trailing twelve months price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) was 26.18 times. One of the most surprising recent news items is a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showing that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust disclosed that it sold all remaining Microsoft shares it held in the first quarter of 2026, approximately 7.7 million shares. Based on the stock price at that time, the sale was worth about $3.2 billion. So, if even Gates’ foundation has completely exited, can we still buy the dip on Microsoft? My answer is that for long-term investors, it’s still a good opportunity; for short-term traders, caution is advised.

Let’s first look at the technical indicators

‌RSI‌ is at ‌76‌, clearly entering the overbought zone, indicating that short-term upward momentum has been overextended, and the pullback pressure is increasing;

‌MACD‌ histogram continues to narrow, with the DIF and DEA lines forming a death cross below the zero line, showing that bullish momentum is significantly weakening;

‌Bollinger Bands‌’ middle band is at ‌$458.46‌, with the stock price trading below the middle band for two consecutive days. The lower band support is around ‌$435‌, and the narrowing bandwidth suggests decreasing volatility, indicating the market is entering a consolidation phase;

‌200-day moving average‌ is a key psychological support level, currently at ‌$458.46‌. A drop below this line would be a technical bearish signal;

‌The 5-day and 10-day moving averages‌ are both in a bearish alignment, indicating a short-term trend shift from bullish to bearish, and the technical pattern suggests the main upward wave may have paused.

Key support and resistance levels

‌Short-term support‌: ‌$440–442‌, the intersection of the day’s low and the 200-day moving average, representing the last line of defense for bulls; if broken, the next support is at ‌$435‌ (Bollinger lower band);

‌Mid-term support‌: ‌$415–420‌, corresponding to the dense trading zone in Q1 2026 and the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level;

‌Short-term resistance‌: ‌$450–453‌, the day’s high and the concentration zone of call options (over 5,600 call contracts), which must be broken for a short-term rebound to occur;

‌Mid-term resistance‌: ‌$470–480‌, the next target zone widely expected by institutions. Breaking through this would reopen the upward channel.

From a technical perspective, Microsoft is currently in an overbought zone. Yesterday’s sharp decline can be viewed as a short-term correction following the previous three days of gains, suggesting the main upward wave may have ended for now, leaving room for further pullback. That’s why “short-term caution” is necessary.

So why can long-term investors still buy the dip? Mainly because of the fundamentals that boost confidence in small investors

‌1. Azure AI revenue share exceeds 25%, becoming the primary growth engine for cloud services. Enterprise demand for integrated “AI + Cloud” solutions is surging, especially in finance, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors, accelerating deployment;

‌2. Copilot ecosystem is fully penetrating: over 20 million GitHub Copilot users, 80% of Fortune 500 companies deploying Office 365 Copilot, forming a “developer-enterprise-consumer” closed loop, with user stickiness and lifetime value (LTV) continuously increasing;

‌3. Deepening moat of AI infrastructure: Microsoft has signed contracts for 10 GW of power capacity, supporting about 1 million H100 GPUs, with deployments in Texas, Northern Europe, and other low-cost energy regions, creating supply chain barriers far beyond competitors;

‌4. Valuation system restructuring: Although the current P/E ratio of 26 is lower than Nvidia’s, market concerns about AI capital expenditure suppressing short-term profits are putting pressure on valuations. Mizuho Securities has raised its target price to $640, believing that increasing AI revenue share will reshape valuation models; Morgan Stanley warns of “lack of catalysts in the short term,” suggesting waiting for Q3 earnings to verify AI monetization efficiency.

Finally, my operational advice, for reference only: trading suggestions

‌Short-term traders‌: Currently in an overbought correction phase, it’s not advisable to buy the dip. If the stock rebounds to the $450–453 range and encounters resistance, consider light short positions with a target of $440. If volume breaks through $453, follow the trend with a target of $470;

‌Medium- to long-term investors‌: Gradually build positions on dips, accumulating in the $420–435 range, locking in core assets for the AI era. Hold for a period of 12–18 months, with a target price of $550–640.