June 2 Midday Strategy

Previously, the US-Iran ceasefire was constrained by US military ammunition shortages. After 8 weeks of ammunition replenishment and US stock market new highs boosting confidence, the Persian Gulf blockade has lasted three months. Global energy supply and demand have completed adaptive digestion. Restarting the war would be difficult to further push up US inflation. The US military risk appetite has increased, and geopolitical frictions are more likely to recur; crude oil benefits directly from geopolitical premiums, while gold and silver are suppressed by rising oil prices boosting inflation expectations and a strong dollar. Short-term volatility is expected.

With the US, Canada, and Mexico World Cup approaching, it’s possible the US might exploit the event window for sudden conflicts, causing market moves to jump on news, with strict stop-losses.

Resistance 4495-4505, support 4445-4420

Rebound entry at 4492~4502, stop at 4518, target 4460→4435, if broken, watch 4420 level;

Pullback to 4422~4432 for stabilization and long entry, stop at 4408, target 4465→4490;

Break above 4555, abandon long orders and follow the trend; break below 4410, short towards 4390 nearby.

Strategy: Range-bound oscillation between bulls and bears, geopolitical tensions initially rise then fall, oil prices lift and cut interest rate cuts, which are negative for gold. Prioritize shorting on rebounds, support at low levels for short-term longs, avoid chasing one-sided moves. $BTC $ETH $10SET