How do you tell whether you’ve reached a certain stage?


Look at market sentiment, then also check fee rates and changes in your positions.
Then ask yourself honestly: at this price, would you buy spot yourself?
If you think you’re going to buy spot, then buy; if you still don’t want to buy spot, then why would you expect other people to buy too? Who doesn’t want to buy cheap goods? This world is run by an improvised crew—just follow your own instincts.
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