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Morningstar's DCF calculation is quite aggressive, directly cut to 45%, but with low liquidity and inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, the short-term stock price is likely to rise a bit more.
Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide: SpaceX roadshow kicks off this week, but Morningstar was the first to pour cold water. This research firm used a DCF model to estimate a fair value of $780 billion, only 45% of SpaceX's target valuation of $1.75 trillion. The analyst bluntly stated that "the company is seriously overvalued." Morningstar valued the core launch and Starlink business at $611 billion, and assigned a probabilistic weighted valuation of only $170 billion to AI-related businesses associated with xAI. However, Morningstar also acknowledged that, with extremely low liquidity and the Nasdaq 100's rapid inclusion mechanism, SpaceX's stock price could still rise in the short term.
SpaceX is about to迎来可能是史上规模最大的