I look at whether a project is really working or not, and I first check how they are spending their treasury funds: it’s not just about “a big chunk of marketing,” but whether they can meet their milestones. For example, if they’re upgrading the matchmaking/market-making mechanism, the expenses should show traces of auditing, development, personnel, and infrastructure, and the timing shouldn’t be constantly delayed; the worst thing is that each update feels like writing a weekly report, but on-chain you only see large transfers with no follow-up.

Recently, funding rates are extremely volatile again, and in the group, people are arguing whether to reverse or continue squeezing the bubble. My habit is to be more cautious: in such times, if the project team is still frantically throwing money to boost hype, but the product and data aren’t keeping up, it’s basically borrowing sentiment to prolong life. Conversely, I’d be more willing to give time if they can spend money on verifiable deliverables, even if the pace is slower and fees/Gas are spent transparently. Beginners really shouldn’t leverage to gamble on this narrative’s fulfillment; it’s too exhausting.