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K33: As funds chase AI stocks, Bitcoin faces a turbulent summer
The weakening of Bitcoin reflects reduced institutional demand, large outflows from ETFs, and the increasing fragility of the derivatives market.
The market generally believes that the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin is too high amid the surge in AI-related assets.
Signs of capital shifting are evident.
Bitcoin failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average, while Nasdaq and the S&P 500 continue to hit new highs.
Investors are also watching potential IPOs from companies like SpaceX and Anthropic, further diverting funds from the crypto market.
Over the past three weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have reduced holdings by 62,794 BTC, marking the second-largest consecutive outflow in history.
K33 previously believed that Bitcoin dropping to around $60k in February might be the largest retracement of this cycle, but now warns that leveraged long positions are weakening in the market, creating potential selling pressure.
Lunde stated that external capital is reluctant to enter, existing holders are reducing their exposure, and the market may experience a volatile summer.