Recently, I keep seeing people use "the supply of stablecoins has increased again / ETFs are experiencing net inflows" to infer what will happen next. Frankly, correlation does not equal causation. An increase in supply might just be swapping chains, market making, cross-exchange arbitrage, or even project teams adjusting accounts themselves; ETF inflows are more like a window for off-exchange funds, but that doesn't mean it will immediately transmit to the chain or to the coins we watch.

Also, big on-chain transfers or sudden movements in exchange hot and cold wallets are often interpreted as "smart money entering the market." As an ordinary user, I become more cautious after seeing this repeatedly: fund flows without context are just shadows. If you really want to use them as signals, at least align the source, counterparty, subsequent destination, and time window; otherwise, you're just taking noise for a story. Anyway, I care more about permissions and transparency—if the information isn't enough, just ask directly. Don't rush to fill in the gaps with assumptions.