#Polymarket每日热点

For Polymarket's "Which companies will go IPO before 2027?" event, I would treat it as a probability-weighted investment game rather than simply tracking market prices.
Current market predictions are roughly as follows: SpaceX 95%, Discord 60%, Anthropic 55%, OpenAI 37%.
My Company Probability Position
SpaceX 99% YES
Anthropic 80% YES
Discord 65% YES
OpenAI 20% NO
Why?
1. SpaceX — the strongest YES
This is no longer speculation. SpaceX has already filed for an IPO and is actively preparing for it, including a directed stock program and IPO share allocation plans. Reuters and TechCrunch have reported concrete IPO preparations.
My view: 99% YES
The market's approximately 95% margin leaves a slight advantage for YES if the process proceeds normally.
2. Anthropic — Top Value YES
Anthropic has secretly filed for an IPO on June 1, 2026. This is a significant milestone because companies rarely file secretly without a serious intention of going public. Many reports point to a potential 2026 IPO.
My Opinion: 80% YES
Given that the SEC filing is already in place, a market price of around 55% seems very low.
3. Discord — Slightly YES
Discord has long been considered one of the most IPO-ready consumer tech companies. It has scale, recurring revenue, and private market investors seeking liquidity.
My Opinion: 65% YES
The market is around 60%, which seems roughly fair. I would only take a small position.
4. OpenAI — Best NO
OpenAI remains the most complex case.
Reasons:
* Extremely unusual governance structure. * Very large amount of private funding available.
* No immediate need for public capital.
* Management has repeatedly emphasized long-term artificial general intelligence (AGI) development compared to traditional public market timelines.
Meanwhile, competitors like Anthropic are already moving towards IPO applications.
My opinion: 20% YES / 80% NO
If the market prices OpenAI at 37% YES, I would prefer NO.
Portfolio Allocation
If I had 100 units:
* 45 units → Anthropic YES
* 35 units → SpaceX YES
* 15 units → OpenAI NO
* 5 units → Discord YES
Expected outcome ranking:
1. SpaceX — IPO before 2027
2. Anthropic — IPO before 2027
3. Discord — likely but less certain
4. OpenAI — least likely of the four
The most mispriced position I find is Anthropic YES, because despite a confidential IPO application already being disclosed, the market is still close to a coin toss.