Today, I was stuck in traffic on the way out, and my coffee was shaking on the cup holder until it cooled off... I casually checked the blockchain and found that many people see "whale entering" and want to follow, which is really easy to get caught in a trap. To put it simply, a large address's action doesn't equal the direction: the same transaction may look like a buy-in, but it could actually be spot accumulation, or it might be hedging for futures positions, balancing the risk.

I usually look at a few small details first: whether funds are flowing out of the exchange and dispersing into multiple new addresses, or moving from old addresses to a wallet related to leverage; also whether they have swapped stablecoins back, or added margin on derivatives platforms. Building a position is more like "gradually stacking," while hedging is more like "moving both sides together," making the net exposure less exaggerated.

Recently, there's been talk about rate cut expectations, and the strange rhythm of the US dollar index and risk assets rising and falling together... The more macro noise and correlation chaos there is, the more whales prefer to make their positions look "very aggressive but actually neutral." Anyway, I personally prefer to earn less rather than follow into someone else's insurance policy. That's all for now.