#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 This Bitcoin analysis will synthesize market data, institutional activities, the policy environment, and historical cycle patterns up to June 2, 2026, aiming to present a relatively comprehensive market picture.

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## 1. Market Performance: Dips Below Key Psychological Levels as Liquidation Wave Returns

As of June 2, 2026, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is going through a clearly visible round of decline. The latest data shows that the BTC price has fallen below $69,000, with a 24-hour drop of about 4%-5%, and has hit a low of $67,885.3. This is the first time since April 2026 that it has fallen below the $70,000 whole-dollar threshold.

Compared with last year’s October high of $126,000, BTC’s cumulative pullback has exceeded 44%. The sharp selloff has triggered a large-scale liquidation wave. According to CoinGlass data, in the past 24 hours, more than 152,000 traders worldwide have been liquidated, with total liquidation amount reaching $766 million, roughly RMB 5.18 billion. Investors with heavily leveraged positions suffered severe losses in this adjustment.

## 2. Institutional Capital Accelerates Outflow: ETFs Enter the Longest Outflow Cycle

Institutional fund flows are the most significant signal that cannot be ignored in this decline. US spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing the longest continuous outflow cycle since their approval in January 2024. Since May 15, the ETFs have recorded net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with cumulative withdrawals exceeding $2.97 billion. The highest single-day outflow reached $733 million. This sequence of data not only breaks the record for duration but also sets an all-time extreme for single-day outflows.

Of particular note, BlackRock’s IBIT—long regarded as an “anchor” product for institutional holdings—has also appeared on the list of large net outflows in this round, breaking the market’s implicit assumption that “core institutional positions won’t easily loosen.” Judging from the timing, ETF outflows closely coincide with the downward price trend, leading to the view that institutional de-risking is an important driver of the current market selloff.

Meanwhile, miners are also reducing holdings in parallel. Data shows that Bitcoin miners’ reserves fell to about 1,801,511 BTC on May 30, the lowest level in two months. This was down by 568 BTC from the previous week, further intensifying supply-side selling pressure.

## 3. Supply-and-Demand Fundamentals: Miner Pressure and the Logic of Scarcity Coexist

From the supply side, Bitcoin’s network officially mined its 20 millionth BTC in March 2026, accounting for about 95.2% of the total supply cap of 21 million BTC. The remaining fewer than 1 million BTC is expected to be mined only around the 2140 period. The rigid supply ceiling and the ongoing decline in the inflation rate provide the core long-term support for Bitcoin’s scarcity.

However, in the short term, the miner group is facing severe profitability challenges. According to CoinShares’ report, in 2025 Q4 the global weighted average cash production cost for miners was about $80,000 per BTC. The average cost estimated by the Checkonchain model is even higher, at around $88,000. With the current price around $69,000, this means miners face an average loss of about $19,000 for each BTC they produce. Under this pressure, some mining companies have begun shifting toward diversified businesses such as AI and high-performance computing (HPC) in search of new outlets. The network’s total hash rate declined by about 4% year over year in Q1, marking the first year-over-year quarterly decline in six years.

## 4. Macro and Policy Environment: Regulatory Optimism Is at Odds With Market Real Sentiment

Over the past month, the US has made important progress in crypto-asset regulation. In mid-May, the CLARITY Act was passed by the Senate Banking Committee. The bill would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulatory authority over spot crypto markets, marking a milestone breakthrough in the long-awaited rulemaking for the industry. On the same day, the BTC price briefly jumped to above $81,000.

On a more aggressive narrative, US lawmakers proposed toward the end of May the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, planning to hold up to 1 million BTC and purchase 200,000 BTC per year, in an effort to make the US government a long-term holder of Bitcoin. Although subsequent versions removed the “1 million BTC purchase target,” locking the reserve at the existing stock of about 328,000 BTC and requiring a minimum holding period of at least 20 years, this policy shift still indicates that the US’s positioning of Bitcoin is moving from a speculative asset toward “digital gold.” If a global sovereign reserve race truly begins, it will introduce a form of structural demand that is less sensitive to price fluctuations.

Worth noting is that many of the above “positive” developments—ETF advancement, regulatory legislation, and strategic reserve proposals—occurred amid a downward price trend. The market’s reaction has seemed somewhat “numb” to the good news. This may reflect that, under the current backdrop of tight macro liquidity and repeated delays in Fed rate cut expectations, short-term liquidity pressure is overwhelming long-term structural positives.

## 5. Technical Ecosystem: The “Evolution” of Bitcoin Scalability

On the technology front, the Bitcoin ecosystem is undergoing a significant evolution. Layer 2 solutions represented by the Lightning Network continue to expand: as of May 2026, they process more than 12 million transactions per month, with active nodes exceeding 18,000. When the main chain is congested, transaction fees can easily reach $50, while the cost per Lightning Network transaction is less than $0.01. At the same time, solutions such as sidechains (Stacks) and client validation (RGB++) are also actively building Bitcoin’s programmability and decentralized finance use cases. Bitcoin is gradually shedding the stereotype of “only storage functionality” and evolving toward a richer on-chain ecosystem.

## 6. Halving Cycle and Key Levels: Historical Patterns Point to a Possible Trough by End of 2026

Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in April 2024, reducing block rewards to 3.125 BTC. It is currently in a window of about two years after the halving. Based on historical cycle patterns, multiple seasoned analysts have laid out a relatively consistent bottom-forecast framework.

Senior trader Peter Brandt believes a reliable bottom has not yet formed. He expects the market to bottom around September to October 2026, then enter an accumulation phase and challenge $250,000 by the end of 2029. This assessment is echoed by on-chain data platform CryptoQuant. Based on indicators such as MVRV Z-score, the platform suggests that the “iron bottom” of this bear market may appear by the end of 2026, with a target range of $55,000 to $60,000. Bitcoin analyst Michaël van de Poppe is even more pessimistic, warning that the market could retest the low around $60,000 in February 2026.

From a more macro perspective, this BTC drawdown from the $126,000 high is down about 44%. Historically, bear markets typically fall by 77% to 85%. Applying that proportion, the extreme bottom could be around the $30,000 area. However, most analyses still view the $60,000 area as a more realistic final clearing zone.

## 7. Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears: Market Consensus Has Not Yet Formed

Overall, bullish and bearish forces are each putting forward their own arguments, and disagreement in the market remains at a historically high level.

Key arguments cited by the bullish side include: the CLARITY Act driving regulatory transparency; legislation on a US strategic BTC reserve introducing national-level buy pressure; ETF channels providing a compliant entry for long-term institutional capital; and the long-term upside narrative supported by the four-year halving cycle still being in play. Ripple CEO predicts that BTC could hit $180,000 by late 2026, and Standard Chartered has set a target price of $150,000.

The bearish logic is also not to be ignored: the longest continuous ETF outflow streak in history directly weakens near-term buying power; miners’ holdings have fallen to a two-month low, and persistent profit pressure continues to drive selling; leverage-driven rebound structures are fragile and lack spot demand support; tight macro liquidity suppresses risk-asset valuations; and technical resistance above $72,000 to $74,000 is clear, making upside breakouts difficult.

All in all, there is a clear tension between Bitcoin’s long-term narrative (scarcity, regulatory recognition, institutional allocation) and short-term pressures (tight liquidity, institutional deleveraging, miner stress). Judging from historical cycle patterns, the market’s final clearing process may not be complete yet, and the price action in Q4 2026 is worth close attention.

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Crypto-assets are investments with extremely high volatility, and market prices may experience significant fluctuations in a short period of time. The content of this article is compiled based on publicly available data and analysts’ viewpoints and is for reference only; it does not constitute any investment advice. Any investment decision should be made with rational consideration of one’s own risk tolerance. It is recommended to consult professional financial advisors before investing.