Bitcoin drops below 70k, Strategy sells coins for the first time, are you panicking?

Strategy sells coins for the first time, ETF runs for 11 consecutive days, Mt.Gox dumps coins—three major negative factors hit simultaneously, Bitcoin crashes from 72,000 to 69,000. Do you think it's going to collapse? I see the most familiar script: liquidate leverage, then ride away in the lead.

First, look at the surface: terrible, really terrible.

In the past week, it fell 9%, monthly down 12%, volume broke through the 70k psychological barrier. Over $800 million liquidated in 24 hours, bears' bodies cover the floor. Fear index soars, and on X, it's all “bulls are gone,” “halving is hopeless.”

But long-term on-chain holders haven't moved, ETF net inflow still totals $55 billion, and Strategy only sold 32 coins.

First thing: Strategy selling coins is a sign that the negative has been fully priced in.

MSTR sold 32 BTC publicly for the first time to pay dividends.

A hardcore bull's first sign of loosening is often an accelerator for the last dip, not the horn of a bear market.

Second thing: ETF outflows, where did the money go? Into AI.

NVIDIA skyrocketed, funds shifted from crypto to AI stocks.

Outflows for 11 consecutive days, with a maximum of $3.4 billion out in one day.

AI is hot again, but can it replace Bitcoin's narrative as “digital gold”?

The Federal Reserve still maintains high interest rates at 3.5-3.75%. Once the rate cut cycle begins, the first to flow back will definitely be BTC.

Third thing: technicals have already reached the “faith test zone.”

Current price is 69,400, volume broke below 70k.

Candlestick chart shows a bear market pattern, MACD death cross, RSI approaching oversold but not extreme.

On the 1-hour chart, just completed a “panic sell-off + liquidity sweep”—first exploding bulls, then shaking out bears, ending with a big bullish candle engulfing.

Bull-bear showdown, see for yourself.

Bears say:

- Strategy has sold, faith collapses

- ETF keeps running away, institutions give up

- Mt.Gox still plans to dump $700 million

- Macro not cutting rates, funds go into AI

Bulls say:

- 32 coins vs. 200k coins, symbolism over substance

- ETF net inflow totals $55 billion, core holdings unchanged

- Long-term holders haven't sold massively

- Halving cycle not finished, target of 100K+ unchanged

Key level 69,400, only 1,400 dollars away from the bottom at 68,000.

Resistance above: 70k-72,000 → 75,000-77,000

Support below: 68,000-69,000 → 65,000-62,000

Short-term:

Mainly watch and wait. If really itchy, try small long positions at 68,500-69,000 with stop-loss at 67,000. Reduce positions at 71,000-72,000 on rebound.

Mid-term:

DCA in the 65,000-68,000 range with 30% position. Stop-loss at 60k (extreme break). Target 80,000-90,000 (waiting for ETF outflows to stop + macro warming).

Risk control rules:

- Total position no more than 30%, keep cash for lower levels

- Watch three signals: ① ETF daily inflow turns positive ② Strategy/Mt.Gox dumping ends ③ CPI or Fed signals dovish

- Always set stop-loss, don’t fall in love with the market

BTC now is like $3,800 in March 2020—

99% of people thought “the pandemic is here, Bitcoin will go to zero,” but six months #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 later it rose to 30k.