Today's forecast - Which company's AI model is the best by the end of June?


First, a small suggestion: it would be better to label each company's corresponding AI model after their names in the prediction options. @predictdotfun Some users are not very familiar with the names of each company's models.
This is a newly launched prediction event today. If you're interested in this event, you can follow my line of thinking and take a look.
First, let's break down the settlement rules.
Here, the comparison of which AI model is the best is based on the scores from the LLM leaderboard on the Chatbot Arena website. Another key point is that the rules also specify a note about the "style control" tag on the leaderboard, which should be set to "off" for the results shown in "Figure 2." You can also view this directly on the webpage.
Another point to note is that the settlement time is June 30th.
From the current results, Claude indeed ranks first with a score of 1499, and even the top three are all theirs.
But if you look more closely, you'll see that the fourth-place Gemini is not far behind the first, with only about 17 points difference. Moreover, this score is actually a range score, meaning the fourth and third places are almost indistinguishable.
So, does a difference of ten or twenty points in this score truly represent a huge leap forward? I don't understand the technical details, but luckily, AI is very good at these technical terms.
Based on feedback from Grok and Gemini, this score is called Elo score. A difference of a few points isn't a "massive improvement," but just a relatively small advantage.
Given that the current prediction option ranks "Anthropic-Claude" with a high probability of 83%, I think there might be some mismatch in the ranking.
To further verify this possibility, I asked the AI whether several major AI companies have released new AI models this month.
The results further confirmed my suspicion.
This June is likely to be one of the most intense months of competition in the AI circle this year, with several AI giants possibly releasing new versions.
Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro is already ready to go; they only released Gemini 3.5 Flash in May. The more powerful Gemini 3.5 Pro is still under wraps and is rumored to be released this month.
Similarly, there is high anticipation for OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release this month.
Based on this information, my move was to immediately buy some shares of Google and OpenAI, mainly because their prices are very low and the risk-reward ratio is high.
At this low price point, I will also place long-term buy limit orders for both.
If a major AI company battle really happens in the middle of the month, the rankings will fluctuate dramatically, likely creating good profit opportunities. I plan to take some profits early to break even and let the remaining position run.
That’s my take on this prediction: "Which company's AI model is the best by the end of June?" Hope it inspires you.
ANTHROPIC-4.11%
GOOGLX-2.81%
OPENAI-2.12%
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