Lately, keeping an eye on whale addresses has started to feel a bit exhausting. When you see big orders coming in, you want to chase them, right? Let’s ask one thing first: are they slowly building their positions, or are they using spot as a shield while hedging on the futures side? On-chain, it looks like they’re “buying like crazy,” but if they also open reverse positions at the same time, then in plain terms, they’re just manufacturing volatility. If you jump in, you end up serving as their liquidity.

In the past couple of days, new L1/L2s have started handing out incentives again to boost TVL. Veteran users are complaining about “mining and then selling.” Honestly, I can really relate: sure, things are lively—but “lively” doesn’t necessarily mean conviction. Sometimes it’s just playing the numbers.

What I’m most afraid of isn’t missing an opportunity. It’s seeing the truth clearly and then pretending I didn’t. Either way, I’ll slow down first—rather miss out on some than charge into the fray under the shadow of other people’s hedging.