In the past two days, people have started using the curve of stablecoin supply to push the claim, “ETF inflows mean money is coming in, so it should go up,” and I can’t help but find it a bit funny… The correlation is really too easy to fool your brain. More stablecoins might just be OTC preparing a stockpile off-exchange, or it could be arbitrage, market making, or lending entities moving funds around—or even simply switching the “container.” The same goes for ETFs: inflows don’t equal immediate spot buying, and they certainly don’t mean that your long positions are safe.

Why am I staying calm? A very plain habit: every day, I only look at three things—OI, funding rates, and liquidation hotspots. First, I figure out “who is carrying the leverage right now, and who is squeezing whom,” and then I look at the narrative. Lately, speculation about testnet incentives, point expectations, and whether the mainnet will issue tokens has been heating up again, and it’s easy for your emotions to get carried away—but what I care about is this: is this wave of hype truly new money, or is the same pot of money just changing stories and continuing to rotate? In any case, follow discipline first—don’t take imagination as evidence.