I. Core Fundamentals Driving Factors

1. Institutional Selling Pressure Intensifies: Strategy with long-term Bitcoin holdings breaks the usual buy-and-hold approach, selling 32 BTC for the first time in years at an average price of $77,135, shaking bullish confidence and becoming the direct trigger for this round of sharp decline.

2. Continuous Capital Outflows: BTC spot ETF experiences consecutive net redemptions, on-exchange buying volume is lacking, and existing positions face increased selling pressure; over $600 million in total market liquidations in 24 hours, with concentrated long liquidations further pushing prices down.

3. Key Macro Variables Approaching: This Friday, U.S. non-farm employment data will be released, with market concerns that strong employment figures may delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts; U.S. Treasury yields remain high, suppressing risk asset valuations; Bitcoin, linked to U.S. stocks, is under pressure and weakening.

II. Technical Analysis Breakdown

Daily Chart (Medium-term Trend)

Overall in a weak downward channel after a high-level decline: 20/50/100-day moving averages are all in a bearish alignment, with prices under all moving averages for a long time; MACD below zero line with ongoing bearish momentum, RSI weak but not deeply oversold, indicating the downward space is not fully exhausted; since the retreat from the previous high of $82,800, rebounds have been weak repairs without trend reversal signals.

4-hour & Hourly Charts (Short-term Play)

1. Strong Resistance Above: $73,000–$74,200, repeatedly tested during rebounds and all rejected, serving as the short-term bull-bear dividing line; only above $73,500 can the weak trend be potentially reversed.

2. Key Support Below: First support at $70,800–$71,000, the recent consolidation center; if broken effectively, downside opens up, with next targets at $66,000–$67,000, and deep support near the previous low of $62,000.

3. Market Characteristics: Weak rebounds, increased volume on declines, narrow sideways trading easily broken by bears, with weak oscillation as the short-term main theme.

III. Market Outlook and Scenario Analysis

1. Bearish-biased Main Scenario (Higher Probability): If the price cannot quickly reclaim the $73,000 level, support at $71,000 will likely be tested repeatedly and broken, with the market gradually extending below $70k, continuing to weaken under rebound pressure.

2. Weak Rebound Scenario: If support at $70,800 holds, only a technical oversold rebound is possible, likely stalling around $73,500, and unlikely to develop into a sustained trend reversal.