Anthropic Secures IPO First-Mover Advantage: Fighting for Computing Power, Talent, and Narrative—Potentially Further Surpassing OpenAI

Anthropic on June 1st (Monday) confidentially filed for an IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, valuing at $965 billion. The core of this IPO race isn't about who goes public first as a prestige, but about who can gain early access to the funding depth of the U.S. public markets, thereby locking in computing power, data centers, and top engineers.
(Background: Breaking News » Anthropic "Secretly Submits S-1" to Launch IPO! Valuation Nearing One Trillion Dollars to Compete with OpenAI)
(Additional context: "The Big Short" Michael Burry Criticizes SpaceX's Unsustainable Trillion-Dollar Valuation, Harshly Attacks Anthropic's Computing Power Frenzy)

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• First-mover Advantage: Securing Computing Power, Talent, and Narrative
• Those who reveal their cards first bear the risk of their hand being seen
• In the race for a $1 trillion valuation, the first to shoot also has to block the bullets first

After a four-month period where the valuation nearly tripled, Anthropic made a move that was neither surprising to the outside world nor earlier than expected. The company officially announced on Monday that it had submitted a confidential filing for an IPO with the SEC.

Confidential filing. Simply put, it means submitting the S-1 document privately for SEC review, without immediately disclosing financial reports to the public. Full disclosure is only required before the official roadshow. This approach allows the company to advance the review process and buy time before confirming the IPO schedule.

First-mover Advantage: Securing Computing Power, Talent, and Narrative

Bloomberg pointed out that the essence of this IPO race is a battle for computing resources.

Once listed, the company can reach a broader pool of buyers, including millions of retail retirement investors, secure larger-scale financing, and use stock for acquisitions or talent retention. In the current AI arms race, whoever secures funding first can sign more computing power agreements and lock in long-term data center contracts earlier.

Matthew Kennedy, strategist at Renaissance Capital, said that banks are telling these two companies "the time has come," citing that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both recorded double-digit gains this year. But Kennedy also pointed out the costs of being first:

"Companies that go public first can set the tone, while those that go later may appear as followers, ultimately being forced to compare themselves to their competitors during the roadshow presentations."

Bloomberg analysts Mandeep Singh and Robert Biggar wrote in May:

"Anthropic's latest funding round valuation exceeds that of OpenAI by over $100 billion, mainly reflecting its advantage in cutting-edge models, and recent agreements with SpaceX, AWS, and CoreWeave have also helped narrow the computing power gap."

Those who reveal their cards first bear the risk of their hand being seen

However, filing early isn't without costs.

PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes offered an counterintuitive interpretation: "The traditional understanding is that Anthropic's early filing gives it the narrative dominance. But from another perspective, OpenAI actually benefits: Anthropic voluntarily steps forward, bearing all the financial disclosure risks, while OpenAI now effectively gets a free option to observe how institutional investors react to AI front-run companies' audited financials before deciding on its own pricing strategy."

This logic isn't unfounded. Both companies have highly similar business models, facing questions about large capital expenditures and uncertain profitability timelines. Jay Ritter, IPO research director at the University of Florida, told Bloomberg that investors are likely to evaluate both companies' IPO filings using the same standards:

"SpaceX has a unique business model, but OpenAI and Anthropic are highly similar. If one company's price-to-sales ratio (P/S ratio), which is market cap divided by annual revenue, is significantly higher than the other's—indicating how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of revenue—that would be truly surprising."

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has already risen 83% this year, showing market enthusiasm for AI concept stocks. But enthusiasm doesn't equal patience. Once Anthropic's roadshow begins, questions about its capital expenditure scale, profit margin pathways, and valuation reasonableness will be unavoidable.

OpenAI is also preparing to submit a confidential filing within weeks, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with plans for a potential fall listing.

In the race for a $1 trillion valuation, the first to shoot also has to block the bullets first

Both private equity firms' valuations are approaching $1 trillion, and the wealth creation speed in AI has surpassed any historical precedent. But the essence of this race has never been about valuation numbers; it's a competition for computing power, engineer density, and capital density.

Anthropic's choice to file first bets on its own financials being strong enough and its models being clearly leading, enough to support institutional investors' supportive pricing once they see the numbers. If this gamble succeeds, OpenAI, which follows, will face pressure to be compared and potentially undervalued; if it fails, Anthropic's hand becomes a free bargaining chip for competitors.

Being first doesn't always guarantee victory, but not acting is the true loss. In the AI race where regulation can't outpace technology and capital determines speed, no one can wait until everything is ready before taking action.