Fidelity Mid-Year Review: 6 Key Trends in Digital Assets for 2026

Author: Fidelity Digital Assets

Translation: Jiahui, ChainCatcher

Mid-year is a good checkpoint for review, allowing investors to assess what changes have occurred in market dynamics and whether their initial judgments still hold.

In the "2026 Outlook," the Fidelity Digital Assets research team believes that this year's key is not immediate price increases, but a more subtle dynamic—that is, a structural "reshaping" of the entire digital asset ecosystem. Although price performance this year has been sometimes flat, sometimes volatile, closer inspection reveals that several underlying trends are continuously advancing.

This article summarizes the progress of several key themes from the "2026 Outlook" so far, pointing out which of our judgments have been confirmed, which have diverged, and what these changes might mean for the future.

1: Accelerated Integration of Digital Assets and Capital Markets

We previously predicted that by 2026, the integration of digital assets with traditional capital markets would continue to advance. So far, this trend has indeed moved forward, with some areas progressing even faster than expected.

Despite market fluctuations, demand for exposure to digital assets through mainstream financial channels remains strong, and traditional platforms are continuing to expand their product lines.

Notably, the open interest in spot Bitcoin ETP options (such products were first launched in November 2024) has now reached levels comparable to directly settled Bitcoin options, reflecting a rising adoption rate among institutions and mainstream investors.

Momentum in the tokenization field is also increasing, with activity seemingly exceeding expectations. Traditional financial institutions are increasingly launching blockchain-based investment products, while large exchanges are partnering with or acquiring stakes in digital asset platforms to broaden distribution channels and connect on-chain infrastructure.

Meanwhile, regulatory clarity is improving. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) jointly issued guidelines establishing classifications for digital assets, along with legislative progress such as the CLARITY Act, signaling a more defined framework for market participants.

Overall, these developments indicate that digital assets are steadily integrating into the broader financial system, driven by both market demand and infrastructure expansion.

2: Growing Attention to Token Holder Rights, but Still Unclear

We previously predicted that by 2026, the interests of token holders would become more tightly bound, with more on-chain companies prioritizing buybacks and clearer ownership mechanisms.

So far, this trend appears unchanged; experiments across the ecosystem continue—from reserve-based buyback dynamics (e.g., Hyperliquid/USDC alliance) to governance and structural updates like the Aave DAO/Labs restructuring.

However, despite expanding adoption of these mechanisms, a clear "token holder rights premium" has not yet been fully reflected in market pricing. The trend is progressing but remains in early stages; investors are still assessing which models can truly deliver sustained value.

3: Potential Shifts in AI and Mining

We previously suggested that increasing competition driven by AI computational demand might slow Bitcoin hash rate growth, as miners reallocate energy and infrastructure toward potentially more profitable directions. This dynamic may be emerging: over the past 30 days, average hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by about 8.8% and 7.8%, respectively.

While some of this can be attributed to seasonal factors, especially winter-related power restrictions, recent recovery (hash rate rebounding about 1.3% from lows, difficulty rising about 8.8%) suggests that weather alone cannot fully explain this shift.

Looking at a longer trajectory, the growth rate of hash rate has slowed compared to previous years, possibly signaling early signs of structural change. AI data centers are becoming increasingly profitable, especially for large operators with access to power infrastructure, which seems to be a key driver behind this trend.

Although still in early stages, the observed slowdown aligns with our initial assessment, possibly indicating miners are gradually shifting toward other revenue sources.

4: Bitcoin at a New Turning Point

We previously predicted that increasing the OP_RETURN opcode's data capacity would not cause significant blockchain bloat (OP_RETURN is used for on-chain data writes, and loosening its data limit has not led to abuse or network congestion). So far, data supports this view.

Usage of larger OP_RETURN sizes (≥84 bytes) has remained roughly unchanged, and overall blockchain growth continues within the predicted range (about 1.35–2.5MB). Other blockchain utilization metrics show capacity remains below 50%, indicating that increased data flexibility has not exerted substantial pressure on the network.

Meanwhile, focus has shifted to more macro-level network dynamics. Bitcoin Knots nodes have shown notable volatility, rising rapidly and falling just as quickly, sparking speculation about potential Sybil-like activities.

Current data shows that Bitcoin Core nodes still account for about 77% of the network, while Knots nodes make up roughly 17%. Although still a minority, this introduces the risk of an unexpected split—low probability but not zero: under certain conditions, Knots nodes could diverge into a chain that stalls or is less secure. Based on current estimates, such a split could occur within approximately 80 days.

However, Core's dominant share continues to anchor network consensus. Meanwhile, momentum around long-term security upgrades is strengthening. BIP-360, simplified and introducing quantum-resistant output types (Pay-to-Merkle-Root, P2MR), is underway; ongoing research into OP_CHECKSHRINCS reflects exploration of hash-based post-quantum signature schemes.

While the exact timing of quantum threats remains uncertain, these developments indicate that industry is increasingly preparing for the network's future security.

5: Bears Temporarily in Control

In January, we outlined two scenarios for 2026: a balanced bull-bear environment, with macro conditions leading to nonlinear market movements despite improving structural fundamentals.

This year, the bear scenario has largely prevailed: Bitcoin has fallen 13%, driven by deleveraging from liquidations, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties prompting expectations of further rate hikes. However, recent market behavior reveals a more nuanced dynamic.

After an initial sell-off triggered by geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin rebounded and outperformed traditional assets during the same period, possibly reflecting a demand for high-liquidity, neutral assets during stressful times.

Meanwhile, structural positives remain, including ongoing institutional capital formation, clearer regulation, and expanding global liquidity.

Although the short-term environment remains constrained, our broader macro view still holds—progress is uneven but ongoing.

6: Gold Remains Strong—What’s Next?

We previously noted that a strong year for gold was not surprising, supported by central bank gold purchases and a global trend away from reliance on the dollar system.

This year, gold initially rebounded nearly 30% amid geopolitical tensions, then retraced to a more moderate 3–4% gain. Despite the correction, gold may still outperform the broader market by year-end.

Evidence supporting a move away from the dollar system is increasing, including new alternative settlement methods—such as Iran accepting Bitcoin for toll payments and transactions related to the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold remains robust. Recent data shows continued accumulation, and notably, gold has surpassed the dollar and U.S. Treasuries to become a major component of global reserves.

Gold’s performance aligns with our initial judgment of sustained central bank demand; the subsequent outperformance of Bitcoin, as we predicted, has yet to materialize.

Conclusion: Gaining Strength Beneath the Surface

As we reach mid-year, the digital asset landscape of 2026 shows a balance between short-term pressures and long-term progress. Several themes from the "Outlook" are unfolding as expected, especially in institutional participation, regulation, and infrastructure; others remain in early stages or have yet to fully materialize.

For investors, this underscores the importance of looking beyond short-term price fluctuations to see how structural shifts are taking shape. Many foundations for the next phase of growth seem to be solidifying, even if not yet fully visible.