Strategy Bitcoin sale timing triggers Polymarket settlement controversy, with related market trading volume exceeding $75 million

Mars Finance news: On June 2, Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 BTC last week, triggering a settlement dispute on a Polymarket prediction market with trading volume exceeding $75 million. The market is: Will Strategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31? Traders can choose “Yes” or “No.” On Monday, Strategy disclosed in a filing to the SEC that the company sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, generating proceeds of about $2.5 million to support allocations related to its preferred stock issuance. This is Strategy’s first disclosure of selling Bitcoin since December 2022.

Traders who support a “Yes” settlement believe the SEC filing clearly shows the sale occurred before the deadline; traders who support a “No” settlement argue that the relevant information was not yet publicly available when the market closed, and therefore it should be settled as “No.” The market had previously settled as “No” twice and has received two objections, and is currently in the final review stage. Polymarket later added a note on the page stating that “confirmations obtained outside the market time frame do not qualify,” which appears to favor a “No” settlement. Disputes of this kind have long been a recurring challenge for prediction market platforms—how to determine the standard for judging the outcome, whether it is based on when the event occurred or on when evidence of the event is made public.