Ultimatum! Anthropic rushes ahead of OpenAI, AI giants' IPO race heats up, is $BTC about to change the game?

Market observers point out that Anthropic submitted a confidential application for an IPO in the United States before OpenAI. This move has directly brought the competition between the two major AI companies from models, revenue, and valuation to the public market pricing betting table. Anthropic filed on Monday morning, ahead of competitors, entering the listing process. The organization stated in a release that submitting the prospectus "gives us the right to choose to go public after SEC review," and emphasized that "the proposed IPO will depend on market conditions and other factors." According to Reuters, Anthropic's listing could be as early as this fall, but the offering size and terms have not been disclosed. The significance of the confidential submission is that Anthropic can advance IPO preparations while temporarily not disclosing sensitive financial details to competitors and the public. This makes the IPO race for AI large model companies suddenly more concrete. Previously, the market focused more on whose model was stronger and who had more users. Now the question is: who will accept public market scrutiny first, who will be priced as a "frontier AI company" first. This filing will test whether investor enthusiasm for AI can withstand the scrutiny of the public market, and will also determine which company will first establish a valuation template for the rapidly growing AI industry.

OpenAI has not yet followed up with a filing. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said he "does not focus on the timing of a potential IPO," and the company "will go public at the right time." But the market was not betting on this—most participants in the prediction market previously expected OpenAI to file for an IPO before Anthropic. Dealogic data shows that the IPO market has regained momentum in recent weeks, with global IPO financing reaching $87.5 billion as of May 26, the highest level since 2021 for the same period. The current IPO window has clearly opened. AI chip company Cerebras went public last month, rising 68% on its first day. According to FactSet data, among companies that went public in the past five years with valuations over $10 billion, only digital design platform Figma saw a higher first-day increase of 250%. But an open window does not mean unlimited capital.

SpaceX is also pushing forward a large IPO, aiming to raise $75 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, potentially trading within two weeks. If SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI all go public in succession, the US stock market will have to digest several mega-scale tech assets simultaneously. IPO research firm IPOX Vice President Kat Liu told Reuters: "Filing shortly after SpaceX allows Anthropic to take advantage of the window while it’s still favorable, leveraging investor interest in AI and growth stocks." She also said, "Compared to SpaceX, Anthropic’s valuation ambitions don’t seem as aggressive when viewed in isolation." Patrick Healy, founder of Issuer Network, said: "There’s only so much oxygen in the room." He emphasized, "SpaceX will consume massive capital, and the second to go public will be in a better position than the third." D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria stated: "The combined capital needs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will be very large and likely disrupt capital markets, so going public earlier will be a huge advantage."

The benefits of going public first are straightforward: set the price first, raise funds first, and give employees and early investors liquidity. But there are costs: disclose financials first, face institutional investor scrutiny first, and expose the true cost structure of AI companies first. PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes said, "The conventional interpretation is that Anthropic just gained a narrative advantage by filing first." But he also offered an alternative perspective: "An unconventional interpretation is that OpenAI actually got a better outcome: Anthropic voluntarily bears all disclosure risks first, while OpenAI can now observe how institutional investors respond to audited frontier AI financial data before deciding on its own pricing." This sentence hits the key point of AI company IPOs. The public market is not only looking at the "AI story," but also at revenue quality, compute costs, cloud service splits, cash burn, customer structure, and profit margins.

According to the Wall Street Journal citing academic research, IPOs tend to occur in batches within an industry, and companies that go public later in the cycle often perform worse than early entrants. The report explains that companies with deeper moats and higher quality tend to go public earlier, followed by a wave of followers. But being first does not guarantee success. In 2019, Lyft went public before Uber, but its stock performance post-IPO was underwhelming, directly impacting Uber’s IPO two months later. Uber then lowered its target valuation, but its stock still fell after listing. The report also mentions that Facebook’s stock price dropped more than half within three months of its 2012 IPO, as the market worried about its ability to adapt to the mobile advertising shift. Facebook later proved its business model, but other companies that initially planned to go public—including Twitter—had to wait. This means that Anthropic’s early move could give it the pricing power in AI IPOs, but it might also become the first large model company to be "unpacked" by the public market.

Why Anthropic? The decision to move forward now is related to recent financial changes over the past few months. Bloomberg News mentioned that Anthropic’s annualized revenue has approached $45 billion. OpenAI’s annualized revenue just surpassed $30 billion, currently estimated at around $33 billion. Based on this, Anthropic’s revenue scale is at least 35% higher than OpenAI’s. This change has been rapid. Reports say that by the end of 2025, Anthropic’s annualized revenue will be only $9 billion, less than half of OpenAI’s. In the first five months of this year, Anthropic’s revenue grew about fivefold; during the same period, OpenAI’s revenue increased over 50%. The revenue structures of the two companies are also different—OpenAI’s income mainly comes from ChatGPT subscriptions; Anthropic relies more on selling API access for AI programming and other white-collar work scenarios to enterprises. For the public market, both types of revenue will be compared: subscription revenue reflects user scale and retention, while enterprise API revenue indicates customer stickiness, usage frequency, and unit economics.

In terms of valuation, Anthropic has also overtaken. Reuters reports that Anthropic completed a $65 billion financing in late May, with a post-money valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI. OpenAI’s latest valuation in March was $852 billion. Anthropic’s valuation has risen rapidly—earlier in February, when it raised $30 billion, it was valued at $380 billion; by late May, the valuation had more than doubled. Recent investors include Blackstone, Brookfield, D1 Capital Partners, GIC, General Catalyst, and Insight Partners. Anthropic’s rapid rise earlier this year shook software and IT stocks, as investors worried that more autonomous AI tools could disrupt traditional business models and accelerate industry upheaval.

On the profit front, the market’s focus is even sharper. The Information reports that Anthropic expects to achieve about $559 million in operating profit in Q2, with an operating margin of about 5%. OpenAI remains in a large loss state. The report states that OpenAI’s Q1 operating loss rate was as high as 122%, even after excluding major items like equity incentives. Calculations suggest that OpenAI’s operating loss for that quarter was at least $7 billion. The main cost pressure comes from compute. OpenAI previously forecasted spending about $25 billion in cash for the year, with AI server leasing costs reaching $32 billion. Additionally, OpenAI needs to share 20% of total revenue with Microsoft, under an agreement lasting until 2030. If this year’s revenue reaches the previously predicted $30 billion, Microsoft’s share would be about $6 billion. Anthropic also faces cost pressures—it needs to share revenue with cloud partners, and its revenue figures include all sales through other cloud providers, some of which will eventually be returned to those partners. Anthropic’s current profitability status is also at risk: as revenue grows rapidly, the company will need to significantly increase server resources, which could push it back into losses. This is also a point the public market will scrutinize: how fast is revenue growth, whether compute costs are rising faster or slower, how much of total revenue is ultimately shared with partners, and whether enterprise customers are truly retained or just driven by short-term AI enthusiasm.

From the timeline perspective, Anthropic has already moved the pace forward. From a financial narrative, it has also presented a more market-friendly combination: higher annualized revenue, higher latest valuation, and at least in the short term, better operating profit performance. But this does not mean the IPO outcome is already certain. Confidential filing is not a guarantee of successful listing or final valuation. The real test will begin after the prospectus is made public. The public market will compare Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI companies across revenue growth, profit margins, cash burn, compute expenses, cloud splits, customer structure, model capabilities, and commercialization paths. Who goes public first and how the market reacts could influence the future of both companies, and may also impact the next phase of the AI boom—either reinforcing market confidence in AI’s transformative power or issuing warnings about overheating. For investors, this competition is no longer just about "whose model is smarter." Now, it’s also about $BTC who can turn the AI story into financial statements that the public market is willing to buy.