Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main Trend (1-hour level): Since the high point of 82,448 on May 10, the medium-term downtrend is accelerating in deterioration. The high of 78,002 on May 26 became the starting point of this decline. After a five-wave plunge to 72,450, an A-B-C correction wave rebounded to 74,154, but on June 1, a shocking crash occurred—dropping from 73,975 off a cliff to 70,566, with a single-day drop of 3,409, hitting a nearly 2-month low. The total volume for June 1 was 29.68B, the highest in nearly 7 days, with panic selling flooding out. The medium-term downtrend is very clear, and the decline speed is rapidly increasing, with the market in an extremely bearish state.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The movement on June 1 was a "free fall" type crash. The morning oscillated between 73,500–73,900, then accelerated downward at 11:00, plunging to 71,850 at 12:00, continuing to crash to 71,265 at 13:00, and dropping to 70,940–70,566 between 14:00–15:00. In the afternoon, it oscillated between 70,566–71,500, closing at 71,212. The highs and lows moved sharply downward simultaneously, indicating a free fall decline in the short-term trend.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend is downward and accelerating sharply; the short-term trend is a free fall decline. The crash on June 1 broke below the lows of May 28 (72,450) and May 29 (72,384), entering a new lower space. The key short-term resistance is 72,000; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term decline may pause; if the rebound is blocked at 71,500 and falls back below 70,566, the downtrend continues, targeting 68,000–70,000.
2. Chan Theory (Chen Theory)
Structure of Fractals: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top Fractals: Appear at 78,002 (5/26), 76,022 (5/27), 74,462 (5/28), 74,222 (5/29), 74,154 (5/31), 73,900 (6/1), etc. The top fractal prices decrease stepwise from 78,002 → 76,022 → 74,462 → 74,222 → 74,154 → 73,900, with the speed of decline sharply increasing on June 1, indicating the bearish force is erupting.
Bottom Fractals: Appear at 75,555 (5/26), 74,114 (5/27), 72,450 (5/28), 72,384 (5/29), 73,118 (5/30), 73,288 (5/31), 70,566 (6/1), etc. The bottom fractal prices go from 75,555 → 74,114 → 72,450 → 72,384 → 73,118 → 73,288 → 70,566. After five instances of rising signs, on June 1, it sharply broke down to 70,566, destroying the bottom structure.
Pen (Bi) and Line Segments: From the top fractal at 78,002 to the bottom fractal at 75,555, the downward stroke is -2,447. Upward strokes: +467 (75,555 → 76,022), downward: -1,908 (76,022 → 74,114), upward: +348 (74,114 → 74,462), downward: -2,012 (74,462 → 72,450), upward: +1,772 (72,450 → 74,222), downward: -1,838 (74,222 → 72,384), upward: +1,638 (72,384 → 74,022), +132 (74,022 → 74,154). On June 1, from 74,154 crashing to 70,566, a very strong downward stroke of -3,588 was formed, far exceeding any previous downward stroke, indicating the bearish force is erupting. The current rebound from 70,566 to 71,212 is +646, not yet forming an effective upward stroke.
Central Zones: The zones at 75,500–76,500, 74,000–75,000, and 72,800–74,000 have been completely broken. A new down central zone has formed at 70,000–72,000, with 70,566 as the new stage low.
Chan Theory conclusion: The strength of downward strokes increased sharply from -2,447, -1,908, -2,012, -1,838 to -3,588, showing the bearish force is erupting. The previous bottom fractal structure of consecutive higher lows (72,384 → 73,118 → 73,288) has been completely destroyed, entering a new downward space. Currently, it is in the early stage of a slight rebound after the downward stroke extension, with no sign of ending. Short-term focus is on whether 70,566 can form an effective bottom fractal; if formed, the downward stroke may end; if it drops below 70,000 directly, the downward extension is likely, with a risk of falling to 68,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory (Wave Theory)
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the high of 78,002 on May 26 is divided into wave patterns:
Wave 1 (Crash): 78,002 → 75,555 (5/26), -2,447. Panic selling.
Wave 2 (Weak rebound): 75,555 → 76,022 (5/27), +467. Rebound about 19.1% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 (Main decline wave): 76,022 → 74,114 (5/27), -1,908. About 0.78 times Wave 1.
Wave 4 (Minor rebound): 74,114 → 74,462 (early morning 5/28), +348. About 18.3% of Wave 3.
Wave 5 (Extended decline): 74,462 → 72,450 (5/28), -2,012. About 0.82 times Wave 1, completing a five-wave decline structure.
Wave A (V-shaped rebound): 72,450 → 74,222 (5/29), +1,772.
Wave B (Deep correction): 74,222 → 72,384 (5/29), -1,838.
Wave C (Rebound to previous high): 72,384 → 74,154 (5/31), +1,770. Wave C nearly equals Wave A at 99.9%, almost the same length.
Wave X (New decline begins): 74,154 → 70,566 (6/1), -3,588. Wave X's decline far exceeds any of the five waves and hits a new phase low, confirming the failure of the A-B-C correction wave, and signaling the start of a new downward impulsive wave.
Current (weak rebound after Wave X): 70,566 → 71,212 (end of 6/1), +646.
Wave conclusion: After five-wave decline + A-B-C correction wave, Wave X plunged -3,588 to a new phase low, confirming the start of a new impulsive decline wave. The current rebound after Wave X is very weak (+646). If the rebound cannot quickly recover above 72,000, Wave 2 of Wave X will fail, and Wave 3 will be extremely fierce, targeting 68,000–70,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall volume-price features: On June 1, an extremely extreme "volume surge crash" was observed. The total volume was 29.68B, the highest in nearly 7 days (5/26: 16.21B, 5/27: 4.78B, 5/28: 10.98B, 5/29: 5.64B, 5/30: 1.15B, 5/31: 1.82B). The crash candlesticks with high volume appeared densely, with panic selling concentrated, indicating very strong bearish force.
Key volume-price nodes:

At 00:00 on June 1, a bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 205, upper shadow 398) appeared, rising from 73,576 to 73,974, showing heavy selling pressure above 74,000, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.

At 06:00 on June 1, a high-volume bearish candle (volume 0.93B) appeared, dropping from 73,256 to 72,861, with a body of -218, indicating active selling dominated the early session.

At 12:00 on June 1, a massive volume bearish candle (volume 2.92B) appeared, dropping from 72,468 to 71,850, with a body of -338 and a lower shadow of 618, showing panic selling concentrated.

At 13:00, an even more terrifying high-volume bearish candle (volume 3.11B) appeared, dropping from 72,133 to 71,265, with a body of -537, confirming continued panic selling in the afternoon.

At 15:00, a high-volume bearish candle (volume 2.43B) appeared, dropping from 71,434 to 70,940, with a body of -444, confirming 70,566 as the stage low.

At 22:00, a high-volume bullish candle appeared, rebounding from 70,950 to 71,306, with a body of 356, indicating buy orders at low levels.
Recent 10x15-minute candles: From 71,306 oscillating down to 71,212, volume shows alternating pattern of decreasing volume during declines and rebounds, with the market waiting in the 71,000–71,500 zone for direction.
Volume-Price conclusion: On June 1, a massive volume crash (29.68B) with panic selling indicates very strong bearish force. However, after 15:00, during the crash, volume gradually decreased, and at 22:00, a volume surge with a bullish candle shows buy orders at low levels. The current low-volume consolidation indicates weak bullish willingness. If a rebound occurs near 72,000 with volume stagnation, it confirms bearish dominance; if the price breaks below 70,566 with volume, a new crash is likely.
5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: The recent 7-day volume control point (POC) is at 73,354, the area of highest trading density between buyers and sellers. Currently, the price at 71,212 is about 2,142 below POC, indicating the market has fallen well below the value area into a deep discount zone, with the discount increasing.
Current position analysis: Price at 71,212 is about 2,142 below POC 73,354, in the below-value zone with a large deviation. In order flow theory, breaking below POC indicates short-term dominance of sellers, and the market has fallen from a fair valuation zone into a deep discount. The current price is approaching an even lower value zone; if it cannot quickly return above POC, the risk of further decline to lower value zones is high.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):

77,059–77,191: Resistance HVN (completely broken)

75,658–75,790: Mid resistance HVN (broken)

74,717–74,849: Core resistance HVN (broken)

73,300–73,800: Original POC area HVN (broken, now resistance)

71,000–71,500: Current support HVN (dense trading zone at 6/1 close)

70,500–70,600: Lower support HVN (dense trading zone at 6/1 low)
Delta analysis: The delta during the crash from 06:00–15:00 on June 1 was significantly negative (-300 million level), confirming active selling dominance. After the 15:00 low, delta briefly turned negative then quickly positive, confirming active buy orders near 70,566. At 22:00, during rebound, delta turned positive (+100 million), indicating buying strength is recovering. Currently, delta MA12 has risen from deep negative territory to near zero, showing buying power is weakly recovering, but selling remains dominant.
Order flow conclusion: Price broke below POC 73,354, short-term sellers are dominant, and the market is in a deep discount zone. The key HVN resistances are at 72,000 and 73,000; if delta continues positive and volume breaks through these levels, the market may recover above POC. If delta turns negative again and the price drops below 70,566, a new plunge to 68,000 is highly likely.
6. Price Action (Price Behavior)
Support and Resistance Levels:

Strong Resistance: 82,448 (phase high), 78,002 (5/26 high), 76,022 (5/27 rebound high)

Key Resistance: 74,500 (5/29 V-shaped rebound high), 74,154 (5/31 high), 74,000 (psychological level), 73,000 (psychological level), 72,000 (psychological + previous low resistance)

Key Support: 71,000 (psychological level), 70,566 (6/1 crash low, recent low), 70,000 (psychological level), 68,000 (psychological level)
K-line patterns:

On June 1, at 00:00, a bullish candle with an ultra-long upper shadow (body 205, upper shadow 398) appeared near 73,974, indicating extremely heavy overhead selling pressure, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.

At 12:00, a large bearish candle with a long lower shadow (body -338, lower shadow 618), from 72,468 down to 71,850, shows panic selling followed by weak buy support.

At 13:00, a large bearish candle (body -537), from 72,133 down to 71,265, continues the decline, confirming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.

At 15:00, a bearish candle with a long lower shadow (body -444, lower shadow 608), near 70,566, indicates panic selling with slight buy support, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.

At 22:00, a volume surge bullish candle shows buy support at low levels, indicating short-term bullish effort.
Trend structure:

Short-term: Operating in a free fall downward channel (connecting 74,154 and 70,566 downward pressure line)

Mid-term: The downtrend since May 22 at 77,829 is accelerating sharply, with a new downward trend line (connecting 78,002 and 74,154) forming.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the market is in the lower part of a free fall channel between 74,154 and 70,566 support. 72,000 is the key dividing line: a breakout may temporarily pause the decline toward 73,000; resistance at 72,000 may cause a pullback to test 70,566 and 70,000 supports.
Comprehensive assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend is downward and accelerating sharply, with the short-term trend a free fall. Key levels are 72,000 (upside) and 70,566 (downside). Chan Theory shows the downward stroke strength increasing sharply from -2,447 to -3,588, indicating a bearish eruption, with previous bottom fractal structures destroyed. Elliott Wave suggests five-wave decline + A-B-C correction completed, with Wave X crashing to a new low (-3,588), confirming the start of a new impulsive wave downward. Volume-price signals show a massive crash with 29.68B volume and panic selling. Order flow shows the POC at 73,354, with price below POC into a deep discount zone, and delta moving from deep negative to near zero, indicating weak buying. Price action shows "shooting star," "bearish engulfing," and "hammer" patterns, all signaling extreme bearishness in the short term.
Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If the price stabilizes with decreasing volume near 70,566–70,600, forms a bottom fractal, and delta turns positive, consider small long positions targeting 72,000 → 73,000, with a stop at 69,800.

Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches 72,000–72,500 with a top fractal and volume increases downward, confirming Wave X rebound failure and a new decline, consider short positions targeting 70,000 → 68,000, with a stop at 73,000.

Current state: At 71,212, in a low position after the crash, the market is extremely bearish in the short term. It is not recommended to bottom-fish on the left side. Wait for a rebound near 72,000 to confirm resistance before considering shorting, or wait for clear bottom structures (like double bottoms or head-and-shoulders bottoms) before going long.