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Traders raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, with the earliest possibility of a rate increase in October at 50% likelihood
The two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, also increased about 6 basis points to 4.07%. Previously, Iran suspended talks with the U.S. through intermediaries to protest Israeli actions. Traders have increased expectations that the Fed's next move will be a rate hike. The swap market shows that traders have fully priced in a rate hike by March 2027 and believe there is a 50% chance of a rate hike as early as October. (Jin10)