Should I sell my coins before May 31st? Polymarket is currently embroiled in an astonishing controversy, and the official statement is set to be released at 1:00 a.m.

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Abstract generation in progress

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket for “Will Strategy sell BTC before May 31?”, controversy has emerged. Earlier today, the market was set to settle as “No,” but after Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 BTC last week, the market rapidly reversed: the probability of “Yes” briefly rose to 85%, and has since fallen to 51%. Both sides stick to their positions, and trading volume for this sub-market has exceeded $20,000,000.

The rule for this market is: if Strategy sells any of its Bitcoins before the specified time, the market will judge the result as “Yes”; otherwise, the market will judge the result as “No.” The primary sources of information for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, while also referencing consensus views from trustworthy reports from all parties. The “Yes” side believes the outcome is self-evident, while the “No” side mostly argues that the sale announcement was published after May 31 and should not be considered.

Polymarket has now added additional clarification to this market: We have noticed the controversy in this market. If a clarification statement needs to be published, it will be published at 1:00 PM Eastern Time on June 1 (1:00 AM Beijing Time). If no statement is published at that time, it indicates that the Polymarket team will not make any clarification. The order book will be cleared at 1:00 PM Eastern Time, regardless of whether a clarification statement has been published.

BTC-4.53%
MSTR-5.6%
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LateFeeLeo
· 6h ago
If on-chain data is the main focus, does MSTR announcement count as secondary?
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ColdLightNftCabinet
· 18h ago
85% drops to 51%, did someone find out the news in advance?
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ReflectiveKey
· 18h ago
What’s the difference between selling 32 Strategy and not selling at all—has the market overreacted?
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GateUser-3f3455c7
· 18h ago
PolyBeats has come out swinging, indicating internal dissatisfaction with this move.
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OldKeycapTrader
· 18h ago
Does the term "any BTC" include even a Satoshi?
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GasUnderTheMoonlight
· 18h ago
Polymarket's settlement mechanism needs an upgrade; this ambiguous controversy is hurting liquidity.
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SaveABitOnGasFees
· 18h ago
These rules are written quite vaguely; selling 32 units still counts as selling.
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