Dark Horse Candidate: Vinicius with odds of 9.00, but is Brazil really reliable?

On the odds leaderboard, Vinicius ranks fourth at 9.00, only behind Mbappé, Kane, and Haaland. As Brazil’s star player, Vinicius has been fighting side by side with Mbappé this season for Real Madrid, and his numbers are nothing to scoff at. However, I’m not optimistic about this Brazil squad’s prospects. Neymar has seen a drop in form and has exited the core lineup; Vinicius’s efficiency for the national team has always been lower than at the club. In 47 matches for Brazil, he has scored 8 goals. To win the Golden Boot, you need top-class finishing ability—Vinicius is more of a creator of explosive moments from the wide areas than a penalty-area killer. Brazil’s Group C opponents are Haiti, Morocco, and Scotland. Advancing from the group stage shouldn’t be an issue, but once they enter the knockout rounds and face strong teams, the problem of Vinicius lacking support from a central striker will be exposed. Brazil doesn’t have a top-tier striker to pair up with him; he has to create chances for himself more often.

I predict Vinicius will score 3 to 4 goals. On Polymarket, he’s not worth a high-value bet.

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