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CITIC Futures: Low-sulfur fuel oil futures follow crude oil declines

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The price of low-sulfur fuel oil has retreated from high levels, and a cooling of geopolitical tensions may lead to a decline in the geopolitical premium for low-sulfur fuel oil; the main product attributes of low-sulfur fuel oil are strong, and during this round of oil price increases, the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil has significantly recovered compared to crude oil and asphalt, with profits greatly revised upward. A positive diesel-gasoline price spread may indicate that low-sulfur fuel oil follows gasoline fluctuations. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces bearish factors such as declining shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high-sulfur fuel replacement. Its main product attributes cause the crack spread of low-sulfur fuel oil to strengthen during crude oil price rises; on the fundamentals side, the export tax rebate rate for low-sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and export quotas for low-sulfur fuel oil are not significantly impacted. The expectation of high profits may drive an increase in low-sulfur fuel oil production. (CITIC Futures)
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