XRP-Focused Analyst: This Model Shows XLM Is in the “Sweet Spot” for Breakout

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Stellar (XLM) continues to trade within a long-term consolidation pattern that has now entered what crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) describes as the most favorable stage for a major breakout.

His latest chart focuses on XLM’s market capitalization rather than price alone, highlighting a multi-year ascending triangle that has compressed for several years while maintaining its structure.

According to the analyst, time spent inside the pattern could prove just as important as price action itself. As volatility continues to contract and support remains intact, he believes XLM is moving toward a critical point in the cycle.

XLM Enters the “Sweet Spot” Zone

In his post, EGRAG CRYPTO presented what he calls the “Ascending Triangle Compression Model.” The chart tracks XLM’s market cap from the 2017 cycle through the current market structure, showing a series of projected breakout windows based on how much of the triangle’s lifespan has been consumed.

He noted that the strongest breakouts have historically occurred after a significant portion of a triangle pattern has matured. The chart identifies 65% as the “Early Ignition Zone,” 70% as the “SWEET SPOT,” 80% as a late but still healthy breakout zone, and 90% as a period where reliability begins to decline.

According to the analyst, XLM has already passed the 65% stage and is now transitioning toward the 70% zone. The chart also assigns probabilities to each stage. EGRAG estimates the 70% zone carries the highest breakout probability at roughly 70% to 80%, compared with 45% to 55% around the 65% mark.

Compression Continues as Support Holds

The chart shows XLM market capitalization respects a rising support trendline extending from the previous cycle. At the same time, resistance remains near the upper boundary of the triangle, creating a narrowing range.

EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted several factors supporting the setup. He stated that the triangle remains intact, the Macro support is still being respected, volatility is compressing, and the asset is consuming more time within the triangle. The tightening market structure lets pressure build as sellers gradually lose momentum.

Momentum Is Already Building

The most recent upward move on the chart coincides with a surge in XLM following the announcement that DTCC plans to connect its tokenization infrastructure to the Stellar blockchain as part of its multi-chain strategy. The development marked one of Stellar’s most significant institutional milestones to date and helped fuel a sharp rally in XLM.

Although XLM surged, the ascending triangle structure remains intact. With compression continuing and the asset approaching the analyst’s preferred 70% window, traders will be watching whether the recent momentum can carry XLM toward a decisive move above long-term resistance.

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