Iran announces a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude oil rises 5% intraday, approaching $92, stock futures turn lower, and gold drops $30.

Traditional safe-haven assets show divergence in the face of real geopolitical crises: gold falls, U.S. Treasuries fall, and Bitcoin falls. When the global energy arteries are cut off, the market's first reaction is to sell everything for cash, not to rush into so-called digital gold.
Bitcoin has fallen to $72k in the past 24 hours, ETF outflows total $4.2 billion over three weeks, and whale buying has stalled. The key at this level is not technical support but whether macro liquidity allows risk assets to breathe.
Every $10 increase in oil prices costs U.S. consumers nearly $60 billion more in energy expenses, directly squeezing disposable income and suppressing demand for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Moody’s data already shows that since the U.S.-Iran conflict, American households have paid an average of $447 more in energy costs.
In the short term, the correlation between Bitcoin and risk assets is returning, not decoupling. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, markets will face deeper liquidity contraction.
What is truly worth observing is: when traditional safe-haven assets also fail, can cryptocurrencies re-establish their safe-haven narrative within a certain price range — this requires time and a peak in oil prices.
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