Today’s Market

I was halfway through writing it, but the market got dragged down by MSTR..
Ever since their earnings call hinted that they might sell coins, American ETFs have been in a net outflow state continuously, lasting for almost all of May..
(Figure 1)
This is also the reason we’ve been seeing this sustained leg of downside...
The previous push to 82K was driven by MSTR and ETFs buying together.. So this move all the way down has also been ETFs being sold off all the way..
As long as ETF outflows haven’t stopped, and Coinbase’s premium hasn’t turned positive, it’s hard to guess when the Americans will start dumping this wave..
For now, based on daily on-chain data, it hasn’t triggered a round of panic selling pressure.. It’s mainly short-term traders continuing to cut positions and exit.. Long-term holders haven’t started selling yet either..
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Figure 2: From a larger cycle perspective, this 14% pullback zone is coming up.. An area above 70K is a psychological checkpoint, along with dense cost lines.. Refer to the clustered AVWAP areas in Figure 2..
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Figure 3: Just now, after the MSTR-related news, the sell-off with heavy volume + liquidity clearing + the colored band overlay.. is a potential intraday entry point worth testing.. I entered an intraday low long first to see how it plays out.
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Figure 4: From the liquidity perspective, today’s intraday liquidity level to watch below 72.5K was swept clean by MSTR.. I’ve also entered. Now we’ll see whether the U.S. stock market opens and moves up or not..
If it doesn’t go up, I’ll continue waiting around 71K.