#Polymarket每日热点 2026 World Cup Golden Boot (Top Scorer) Prediction

Only 10 days left until the start, and the groupings and lineups of all 48 teams have been finalized. Based on odds from major platforms, group draw, and player form, my predictions are as follows:
🏆 First Tier: Strongest contenders for the Golden Boot
🇫🇷 France — Kylian Mbappé (odds +600, top favorite)
2022 Golden Boot winner (8 goals), hat-trick in the final
France is in Group I (opponents: Norway, Senegal, Iraq), with room to "boost stats" against Iraq in the group stage
But Norway and Senegal have solid defenses, and they will face tough matches after advancing from the group
Concern: Haaland is in the same group, meaning Norway won't be easily broken through 🇳🇴 Norway — Erling Haaland (odds +1600, biggest dark horse)
This is Haaland's first World Cup in his career! Norway returns after 28 years, winning all 8 qualifiers, scoring 37 goals, and crushing Italy 4-1 to qualify
49 caps, 55 goals for the national team, with terrifying scoring efficiency
Their group opponent Iraq is relatively weaker, so Haaland is expected to explode in the group stage
Concern: Norway's overall depth is not as good as France, and how far they go will determine the likelihood of winning the Golden Boot
🇬🇧 England — Harry Kane (odds +700)
2018 Golden Boot winner, highest goal efficiency in Europe
But the 26-man squad announced by Tuchel is shocking:
Palmer, Foden, and Arnold were all left out! Offensive creativity is significantly reduced
Group G opponents (Croatia, Ghana, Panama), with Panama being an "easy target," so Kane can accumulate goals in the group stage
Kane's penalty-taking ability is a natural advantage
🥈 Second Tier: Competitive but slightly lower probability
Vinicius
🇧🇷 Brazil — Group C (Morocco, Haiti, Scotland), with Haiti being a goal feast target
Yamal
🇪🇸 Spain — Group H opponents are relatively weak (Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde), but reports suggest he may miss the initial matches due to injury
C Ronaldo
🇵🇹 Portugal — Group K (Colombia, Uzbekistan, Congo), the last World Cup for him
Messi
🇦🇷 Argentina — Group J (Austria, Algeria, Jordan), defending champions' final dance

My judgment on the countries most likely to win the Golden Boot: 🇫🇷 France or 🇳🇴 Norway
Reasons:
1. Mbappé is the top choice based on odds and strength, and France is likely to go far (at least to the quarterfinals), ensuring enough matches
2. But Haaland is in very good form this year — Norway won all qualifiers, Haaland has 55 goals in 49 matches for the national team, and he might score 3-4 goals in a single match against Iraq in the group stage. Kane's goal-scoring might be limited due to controversy over England's lineup (Palmer/Foden missing), reducing creative opportunities. If I have to pick one: Mbappé / France, but Haaland / Norway is the biggest wild card this year — he might be the "unexpected winner" of the Golden Boot.