Volatility has been pushed down to 17%. The tighter the spring is compressed, the higher it bounces back. Wait for the direction to be chosen.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is currently in a clear volatility compression phase: the 30-day realized volatility has fallen to about 17, the quarterly decline is over 56%, the price is around $735,000, and it is still below the 200-day moving average. The Delta indicator remains negative, dropping to -0.0013 in May, indicating that market-cap growth is lagging behind realized market-cap growth, while the premium and risk appetite have declined. The market is in a “low volatility + cooling premium” consolidation phase; if it returns to the 200-day moving average and Delta rises back to near zero, it may enter a period of risk-appetite expansion. Otherwise, it will shift into a risk-averse phase. Direction is currently neutral, but the compression is severe, and the probability of a large move higher volatility increases.